Falling Timbers - Cramer’s Stop Trading! (4/24/08)
April 30, 2008
Recap of Jim Cramer’s comments on Stop Trading! Thursday April 24. Click on a stock ticker for more analysis.
Sweet as Honeywell - Cramer’s Lightning Round (4/24/08)
April 30, 2008
Stocks discussed in the lightning round session of Jim Cramer’s Mad Money TV program, Thursday April 24. Click on a stock ticker for more analysis:
Gone with the Wind - Cramer’s Mad Money (4/24/08)
April 30, 2008
Stocks discussed in the in-depth session of Jim Cramer’s Mad Money TV program,Thursday April 24. Click on a stock ticker for more analysis.
Run for Coverage - Cramer’s Stop Trading! (4/23/08)
April 30, 2008
Recap of Jim Cramer’s comments on Stop Trading! Wednesday April 23. Click on a stock ticker for more analysis.
Green Presidential Picks - Cramer’s Mad Money (4/23/08)
April 30, 2008
Stocks discussed in the in-depth session of Jim Cramer’s Mad Money TV program,Wednesday April 23. Click on a stock ticker for more analysis. Read more
Zoltek Blowing in the Wind, Cramer’s Lightning Round (4/23/08)
April 30, 2008
Stocks discussed in the lightning round session of Jim Cramer’s Mad Money TV program, Wednesday, April 23. Click on a stock ticker for more analysis:
Another Very Quiet Day And Another Very Bullish Day For Our Longs; Fed Meeting Should Produce A One And Done…
April 30, 2008
It was a very quiet day of trading and until the very last hour appeared to be the lowest volume day the entire year. However, a pickup in action the past hour prevented that from happening. But instead of a rush to buy stocks there was a small little rush to sell. That helped take the indexes off their highs and helped leave them basically flat for the day with most indexes up or down between up .1% and down .2%. The biggest moving index was the SP 600 with a walloping .6% rally.
Leading stocks, in the form of the IBD 100 fell .4% but many stocks that make up this index look great, pulled back on lower volume, or actually moved higher on higher volume. Some of the bright spots that I am not long (no free picks :)) include ACL SINA STR SOHU CMI NTES and ARD. Some of the dark spots were the chemical-fertilizer stocks that are in the middle of ANOTHER possible topping process. This topping looks so much more real this time as not only is TNH in a climax run but POT MOS CF and AGU on weekly charts going back to 2002 show stocks that have gone from a sustained slight uptrend, to a strong uptrend, to an exponential uptrend, to a powerful exponential uptrend, to a parabolic uptrend, to a climatic possible top this month. With these stocks selling off in a climatic topping fashion and with so many tech, retail, bank, and other lagging stocks looking good, it does appear that this is a massive rotation. I think that is a very good thing, if not now, for the future.
The mixed results came on lower volume as volume contracted around 10% on both indexes as most investors are in a holding pattern waiting for the Fed to come out with their announcement. Even though I do not care about this really, the truth is the overall trend is very important and that trend could be coming to an end as the Fed is expected to lower rates one final time as inflation is finally starting to worry them more than economic weakness. This move might be taken as the signal for investors to get back to work.
This is all wishful thinking. But my hope is that by signaling that they are done cutting, the big elephants (mutual, pension, trust funds) will start to put money back to work and will go out looking for money knowing that they will not be able to get a better deal on their financing down the road. But, if you are in that wishful thinking cap you have to be cautious when you here that Warren Buffett thinks that this will be a really bad recession that will last longer and be deeper than we think. I could see that happening also, so I am not so sure I am even confident with my wishful thinking best case scenario.
What I am hoping for is for the Fed to change the wording in their announcement that would somehow signal to investors that the rate cuts are finally over and now the Fed will be waiting for the next move which historically, after this many cuts, is higher. That means the next time the Fed will raise rates, they will know that the economy is strong and that they will need to cool it off.
All I know is that I see a LOT of mutual fund cash just piling up in some great mutual funds that have some experienced fund managers with excellent long-term track records. Those guys are going to eventually need to put that money back to work and you can bet after going this long without a TON of volume on the indexes that in the future we are not going to be able to miss these elephants as they leave their tracks all over this market. Volume has only been above average two time since 3/20 on the Nasdaq, with one of those days of above average volume coming on a triple-witching session (and even then it was only BARELY above average), and the NYSE is still waiting to see a day of above average volume since that date. It came close once, but close is not final.
This is proof that the smart money is not involved in this market and what you are all seeing is a low volume rally that is naturally lifting stock due to the fact that the market has a natural tendency to rally on low volume. This is because investors are very impatient and when they do not see rewards immediately they go out and sell stocks. The dumb retail crowd is notorious for making this bad decision. On top of this slow selling into strong bidders, many weak traders start shorting stocks which completely goes against the market axiom “never short a dull market.” This short selling in a low volume market causes stocks to slowly naturally lift, which then hits the stops of the dumb money, which then raises the stocks as they are forced to cover, that covering then sends stocks higher till they break out, that then draws in more of the retail crowd who buys breakouts, that buying then leads to more short covering, and more and more amateurs continue to repeat this process until they are either all wiped out or they all turn bullish. Once this happens, then the stock can finally come down. With the NYSE short interest ratio at 11.81 I don’t think we have to worry about the market falling any time too soon as the lower volume rally will continue to inflict pain on these amateur traders.
Not only is the NYSE short-interest ratio bullish for longs with it being at YET ANOTHER all-time high–it seems like it is hitting a new high EVERY day–but the put/call ratio remains high at .87. This is not extremely high which would be around 1.6 but anything over 1 is extreme. Still though, the fact the put/call can not fall below .80 is proof that every tick higher brings in more and more short sellers that are buying puts thinking the market will fall. As long as market players are buying just as many puts as calls (which is historically bullish for stocks) and shorting stocks as stocks rise, volume or no volume, I will not hesitate going long great stocks forming solid chart patterns that show excellent fundamental characteristics. I have already started to do that as this rally moves on but I am still waiting to get heavily invested as I refuse to load-up on stocks without the big boys/smart money participating.
In M&A news I was pleasantly surprised to see WWY get bought out by Mars Candy which Warren Buffett financed. What I found interesting is that if you just would have bought WWY in 1984 and held it all the way till this announcement, you would have found yourself a big slow and steady monster stock as the stock has rallied over 6,800% since then including a small dividend. Not bad at all and why I prefer holding stocks over intraday trading. However, I still think intraday trading (due to the inability to nail HUGE MONSTER STOCKS) and long-term investing (Enron, Worldcom, Adelphia, .com’s) is very risky and advise against it. I believe active investing which involves holding most stocks between 6 months and 18 months is the best way to make a fortune in the stock market.
I do not think that we can expect too much action from the market before the Fed actually makes their announcement. So I would expect for the market to give us more of what we just saw today. After the Fed, I am sure there will be more action. But for now, it is best to just take it easy, stick with what is working, and leave the riff-raff alone. Enjoy the lull, there will be a lot of fireworks, I assume, after the Fed is done doing that thing they do to annoy us so well.
There is yet again another supposed to be GIANT south swell hitting the south and west shores of Maui. This is my backyard and anytime it can actually get overhead and possibilities for big drops and barrels are there, I would rather be there than watching a dead market. So I might be checking out early tomorrow, to give the platinum members a heads up. But if the market is doing something really amazing to the bull or bear side, I will make an effort to stick around to the closing bell. Until then…SURF’S UP AGAIN! and until this market gets more exciting via more volume in the overall market or we get more HOT charts like the two that subscribers know I am talking about I will continue to focus on my surfing which brings me much greater joy than a chart ever will….well I have to admit, pretty max green BOP filled charts like those you see in my ‘past big winners’ do make me very happy to. There just is no feeling to getting a good wave and carving it up like it was a pumpkin. I still have yet to feel ANYTHING (besides LOVE, OF COURSE!!!!) that feels as good as a nice long tube ride tucked deep in the barrel (not that I am too familiar with those with my donkey surfing and crap Maui waves).
Aloha and I will see you in the chat room, unless I am out surfing and then you can find me at either Olowalu, Breakwall, or Guardrails if it is too crowded at the two best lower west side breaks. Well, the best is Lahaina Harbor but that is for the groms that will be going pro. I have no business over there, lucky for all of you. 
ALOOOOHA!!!
BWT.net Re-opens Comments
April 30, 2008
Hey everyone,
The decision has been made to reopen commenting here at BWT.net. We don’t want to let a few bad apples spoil it for the whole lot. We’re going to be heavily moderating comment’s so don’t even bother sending along any negative crap. If you disagree with something Joshua says you can 1st go look at the past big winners and see all the gains he made that you missed out on, and 2nd go start your own blog and build a following of people who want to lose money listening to someone who doesn’t know 1/2 as much about the market as Joshua Hayes. I look forward to seeing everyone’s good questions and positive comments.
You can’t be living the island lifestyle and have time to be surrounded by negative people.
Thanks to all,
DeMerchant
Notes For Monday’s Stock Market Session
April 30, 2008
-The IBD 100 is up 228.5% compared to SP 500’s 49.5% since 4/18/08
-IBD 85-85 and IBD 100 were down for the week (-.9% compared to Nassy .8%) but they were up over 2.5% on Friday compared to Nassy down .2%.
-This appears to be rotation of some sorts out of commodities into some new sectors
-Internet-Network Solutions up 9% this week
-Computer Software-Design up 5% this week
-These industries however are being led by the usual laggards BIDU and AAPL.
-Strongest Semi stocks: PMCS MCRL VLTR FSLR CRUS JASO SMTX POWI IVAC JST LSCC SMTC AXYS
-Impressive food stocks: FDP SDA — I am long both
-Nasdaq has an A for acc/dis NYSE B SP 500 B+ IBD 85-85 C+
-Top two leading industries: Oilandgas-US Expl/Prod and Transportation-Railroad
-McClellan oscillator is slightly overbought
-NYSE short interest ratio is yet again at ANOTHER ALL-TIME HIGH at 11.57…takes almost 12 days of average volume for all shorts to be covered
-Investors Intelligence shows 39.1% bulls and 35.6% bears and AAII has 46% bulls, 27.5% bears, and 25% neutral
-oil rose $2.46 to $118.52
-gasoline is almost $4.20 a gallon for unleaded on Maui
-Helene Meisler ob/os oscillators are muddled an slightly overbought
-there were 91 new 52-week highs to 89 new 52-week lows on Friday
-Energy made up 17 of them, medical and banks had 7 new highs, business service had 6, and retail, real estate, and finance had 5 each. This is the broadest showing of new highs in a over a month.
-the VIX hit a new low for 2008 hitting 19.21 intraday on Thursday
-the 10 DMA of the put/call ratio appears ready for a turn higher
-last week there were 155 new highs on the NYSE this week the most during a session was 55 (negative divergence)
-last week there were 49 new highs on last-Thursday, this Thursday the Nassy hit a new high yet there were only 21 new highs (negative divergence)
-we have the Fed on Wednesday. This is supposed to be the last cut
-we still have very low volume and therefore 50% cash is still recommended here. It is still not time to go all-in
GOOD LUCK ON MONDAY!! ALOOOOOOOHA!!!!
Notes For Monday’s Stock Market Session
Bullish Intraday Reversal For Second Day In-A-Row Has Stock Indexes Closing Near The HOD (And Is The Reason Why You Should Not Panic Sell And Watch Stocks Intraday); Leading Stocks And Semiconductor Stocks Take Charge Which Is Just What You Want To See During A Rally
April 30, 2008
I am not sure how strong and long this commentary is going to be as I have been surfing some giant waves and have been spending the past two days at the beach most of the day watching the surfing contest at Ho’okipa amongst the HS ripping groms. These kids paddle out into 10 foot face POWERFUL HEAVY waves and charge like it is nobody’s business. All of these kids surfing today were experienced but if any of them would have been newbies THEY WOULD HAVE BEEN KILLED as the waves were way too much for most mortals. These amazing kids not only surfed these waves but a lot of them now need to go spend an extra $300 to $800 for new boards as I saw at least seven surfboards break in-half! Yes the waves were that big.
What is the point of that. The point is that the windy, rough, and scary conditions were almost too much to hold a contest and the fact they did today was pretty dangerous. I take the conditions to at Ho’okipa and see a correlation to this recent market. The only exception is that the big waves do not relate to big gains and big trends but are like the volatility and lack of follow-through in this market. This market is not a market for newbies. Newbies paddling out into 10 ft. waves that are wind blown and AS ROUGH AS CAN BE is a disaster waiting to happen.
Recently, I saw some people get upset that they lost a lot on GU. Why? Why was GU a large position? There was NOTHING perfect about it and I made it clear this stock was not a large stock. Yet some thought it was worth paddling out, after they watched BRKR’s board break and wash up on the shore, and they went long a NOT PERFECT stock GU. GU hurt when it fell over 15% which is about as painful a loss as I can handle. Luckily I had nearly nothing of this stock as I hate buying IPO’s that are NOT loaded with max green BOP, huge volume, and a 99 EPS rating in IBD. If you are paddling out into the waves of this market right now, you are asking for trouble. You could drown, hit your head and die, break your board, or break your back if you get hit with the waves in the conditions we have right now. Instead MOST OF YOU should still be on shore waiting for the wind to die down, for the lines to clean up, the crowd to go away, and for the clean peeling sets to roll through. When that lines up perfectly, then you paddle out and CHARGE!!
Until the conditions are perfect, MOST OF YOU newbies need to seriously put the gun away (stop going heavily long on margin) and need to get out the longboard (buying big-cap stocks breaking out of sound patterns with great earnings and HUGE average daily volume). Once you get comfortable buying the big cap stocks and dealing with this methodology, then you can get nuts and move your way down to the small-cap stocks where the big money has always been. Value or growth, it doesn’t matter to me, as long as the waves are good (stock is breaking out from a sound pattern).
I am not picky, I will surf anything, AS LONG AS THERE ARE WAVES. I know how to hold 100 stocks. Not only can I hold 100 stocks I know how to keep 90 of them 10% and 10 of them 90% of my account. In this market, I think the only safety is by being long quite a few leading stocks, and as the week goes, move the money out of the weak to the strong. That is why you see me long a lot of stocks. What most of you can’t do is follow that many. Trust me, my first few years I could not either. But as I progressed I noticed I would hold more and more stocks as I learned how to hold for the BIG GAINS. And since I have not been completely confident with this market since April 2006, when the uptrends stopped being “easy” and downtrends stopped being “easy.” Now everything is hard to make money in as a low VIX continues to pressure gains. It is like a long lull waiting for big swells. We constantly get waste to chest high waves, while we are waiting for the double overhead barreling sets.
This massive swell will come again and heck it may start shortly as the SOX index, Nasdaq index, and IBD 100 and IBD 85-85 indexes are definitely “rounding out” bottom patterns which makes them look like they could be putting in a real bottom here. The last bit of confirmation will be volume. Once I see a massive set roll through that is lined up perfectly, then I will drop in on the perfect stocks that are setup like my ‘past big winners.’
BTW, I have decided to split up my ‘past big winners’ by year so that I can move away from 2003 (there are still 10 stocks to list that were up over 100% that were loaded with max green BOP and volume) and start posting a few winners in each of the years from 2004-2007. So you can look forward to that and then if you don’t believe THE EXACT SAME PATTERNS THAT YOU SEE IN 1999 2000 2001 2002 AND 2003 EXISTED IN 2004-2007, I AM ABOUT GOING TO PROVE TO YOU THAT WAS NOT THE CASE. Even if we do not get any in 2008 (and so far it does appear that we have two of them that start with letters of the alphabet that are near the front of the list), you can bet your life’s saving that by 2009 WE WILL GET SOME.
Well, after this odd start, I guess I will get to the action. Overall, for Friday, I was very happy that the market was able to put a second day of an extremely bullish intraday reversal. This was the second day in a row I watched traders “semi” panic and either sell stocks intraday or talk about selling stocks when some stocks sold off hard. I can guarantee that if I would have been awake, in the room, watching the other forums and chat rooms, and watching my stocks sell, I can not deny the fact that it is possible that I would have sold a little bit of DAR and ICO on Thursday. Those stock had some EXTREMELY bullish reversals that at the time of the selling appeared to be major reversals. By the EOD, they were back to being in a normal uptrend. Thus proving that intraday trading, when you are trying to HOLD for the BIG LONG MONSTER STOCK gains, is NOTHING but a dangerous and a potentially disastrous situation waiting to happen. How many of you panicked out of ICO and DAR on Thursday? If you did, make sure you learn your lesson.
When is it OK to sell a stock intraday? BRKR was a perfect example. BRKR gapped BELOW the 50 DMA thus making it OK to fully sell as soon as you wanted to. I, however, believed the trend would be moving back up as this stock was under some HUGE mutual fund growth (the past four quarters mutual fund sponsorship increased 65 73 83 and 87). However, I guess they decided to not support the stock immediately as it continued to selloff throughout the day. I apologize for telling some people to not fully sell when it was clearly under the 50 DMA. That is my fault and I did cost you a little bit of money. However, after the first break you saw me sell 25% (if you are at least a gold subscriber) and many subscribers sold 50% to all as they are not allowing the stock to move against them after they go long. This market is VERY unforgiving.
But with every BRKR, there is a WSCI CMP MTL GENC GEOI MCF EBIX and MTL (all longs–MTL CMP were very large positions–are up between 40% and 155% the past year). So as you can see the market is not that bad. But it is definitely not that good either and if any of you have done your research on my website and studied some of my past big winners from 1999-2003 you will see that the patterns that showed up then are not showing up now.
And since so many of you are demanding to see charts from 2004, 2005, 2006, and 2007, I have asked my Web Designer to split up the ‘Past Big Winners’ into years. I still have 10 longs that I held in 2003 that gained over 100% but they were all small positions–my biggest positions were HIL, TRAD, EPIC, EVOL, TASR, FMDAY, USNA, EGHT, SIGM, and SWIR in 2003–so I have decided to move on to the years of 2004-2007 and I will add one to each year rotating as I go along. That way you can, by the end of the week, hopefully, see a ‘Past Big Winner’ from each year so you can see the power of this methodology works AT LEAST!!!!!!!!!!!! (LOL) one time per year. And I don’t know about you, but if I could only invest one time during the year and make a killing while getting to surf ALL DAY, I would be in heaven. However, normally there will be about 5-20, depending on it being a bear market or a bull market. Last year, there were 3 perfect longs and about 5 perfect CANSLIM (but not chart wise) longs. So you can all look forward to that as some of you have wanted to see the charts for a while now.
Now, getting back on track (I told you I would be all over the place after getting too much sun, getting too much surf, and eating too much food), there are two things that are happening in this market that make me very happen on a price basis. The IBD 100 index is leading the market higher, which is a confirmation of the strength (albeit however small it is) in the overall market, along with the Semiconductor index. The SOX is a sector everyone always wants to see moving higher because EVERYONE and their brother remembers 1997-2000. People like me will NEVER forget. Times were good and RMBS was the stock EVERYONE was in love with (minus INTC, OF COURSE). However, right now, the SOX is drifting higher and whenever I see that, along with the IBD leading the market, I get a smile on my face. I hope this is a good precursor for this market. If it isn’t, I will not be surprised but I am glad to see this index getting a mini-pop.
NOW, remember, I am not talking about JUST THIS WEEK with the IBD 100 (I am leaving out Thursday when the index fell as a rotation out of old leaders into new leaders appears to be starting). The IBD 100 was actually lower this week but it was up over 2% on Friday well outperforming the market. But the NEW stocks that are entering the IBD indexes are making up for the OLD IBD index leaders which are being dropped out. For now, this will make the performance weak. But in time the IBD indexes will be leading. The new stocks in the indexes are showing some great strength and once the old leaders are out this should act better. However, I wanted to make that clear as I have been talking a lot about leading stocks being strong but the market mistreated the IBD indexes this week. It mistreated the old metal and chemical stocks. It was A-OK with the new stocks entering the list.
That list of new stocks can be found by looking at the NEW stocks that have recently entered the IBD 85-85 and 100 index, along with the stocks on the Market Pulse “leaders up in volume” area. There are a lot of stocks making big moves but sadly the terrible thing is NOTHING IS PERFECT. There are loud bases everywhere and even though some things are shaping up there are more stocks that look ugly, are trending down, or are actually moving higher on heavy distribution. THAT! is always odd to see.
Some recent action that has caught my attention, and I saw it catch the attention of IBD’s “the big picture,” is the bullish patterns in SINA, SOHU, and BIDU. BIDU has what appears to be a solid base setting up but I want everyone to remember that volume is supposed to be QUIET in the base. Not loud like BIDU. You are not supposed to see every week come in on above average volume. Yet that is exactly what we have with this base which is much wider, looser, and more active than any other base that BIDU has built. As for SINA and SOHU, go back to my past big winners in 2003 to see when I first discovered these gems. SINA and SOHU are a blast from the past and the bases today look HORRIBLE and WIDE compared to the previous bases made from 2006-2007. This pattern is an almost EXACT REPLICA of the 2002-2004 to 2005 rollover period that SINA and SOHU built before. History always repeats itself.
Speaking of history, you would think that we would have learned that stocks that have made big run ups of at least 500%, that NOW EVERYONE talks about, and has gone through a few splits is probably not going to be a great long. Recently, a lot of people have been asking me about BIDU, RIMM, and ISRG as possible longs. I think all three could be OK longs but believe me the past leaders of one bull market are almost never the new leaders of the next. It does happen a few times but not most of the time. 95% of the time, the next big winners, the next year, will be brand new fresh stocks that are breaking out to new highs for the first time. These stocks have usually IPO’ed the past eight years and show some great EPS and sales growth. My two biggest long positions are still stocks that no one is talking about yet the fundamentals are beautiful, the chart is beautiful, and as long as the 50 DMA can hold, things should be good. But the way this market is acting, I am not expecting anything like the gains I received in 1999 and 2003. I am VERY realistic. And I hope everyone reading this is too.
I will repeat, this is a very difficult market to make money. Some markets are easy when stocks are rallying across the board on heavy volume and some markets are hard. When the markets are making small gains on light volume, you better believe it is going to be very hard.
You know what else is hard? Learning how to drop in on a 10 foot face wall of water when you got another 50 guys paddling for the same wave. Yet I think I am going to make another attempt at trying to kill myself tomorrow up north. I doubt the surf will be 10 feet but even if it is close I am still going to make an attempt. If it is too big I guess I will come back to my side and surf Honolua Bay. Either way, I will be gone all day as I drive to the north and/or upper west side to work on my surfing, since I am not writing columns anymore. I will be back later that night to post some more commentary and internal numbers that can better help us prepare for the upcoming market.
But obviously, we can just keep it simple and say, the trend is slightly up on the sub-intermediate and shorr-tmer side and down on the long-term making it one mixed market. You definitely want to be a little long right now, anticipating getting 400% long if we can get volume on the rallies, with a LOT of cash ready to put to work when perfect charts setup and breakout. I can’t wait for that to happen. Aloha for now, I am going to enjoy the waves and I want everyone to know that later on during the week a HUGE SOUTH SWELL IS GOING TO LIGHT UP MY BACKYARD. I am sure I will miss part of a day or two this week. But as long as volume remains low, I don’t think it is going to matter much.
Aloha, for now, I will see you before I go out surfing and will check back at the end of the day when I paddle back in. Hopefully, these extra-large northwest and south-southwest swells is a “forerunner” for some HOT max green BOP filled, huge accumulation, low volume pullback, RS line leading, 99 EPS, stocks that are breaking out of bases that are round and lasting at least five weeks. Keep your fingers cross that we are seeing a rotation from old leaders into new leaders and that these nice charts will be right around the corner. ALOOOHA! SURF’S UP!!!
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