John Hussman: Has the Market Reached Final Lows?
June 30, 2008
Excerpt from fund manager John Hussman’s weekly essay on the U.S. market:
Excerpt from the Hussman Funds’ Weekly Market Comment (6/30/08)
If current levels were to turn out, in hindsight, to be the final lows of this decline, I suspect that the overall return over the next cycle (by the time we do observe a full 20% loss) will be as tame as we’ve seen since 2003. Over the past 5 years, still with no 20% bear market completed, the total return of the S&P 500 Index has averaged 7.5% annually. A market low here and now would compete with the 2002-2003 lows for the highest valuation observed at a cyclical market trough. Suffice it to say that the decline has improved prospective long-term returns, but the most likely 10-year return for the S&P 500 (standard method) is still only in the range of 3-6% (with -0.5% and 8.5% as the extreme bounds except in the event of a 2000-type bubble or a 1974-type trough).
John Hussman: Has the Market Reached Final Lows?
Every hedge begins with G - Gold (GDX, rated BUY)
June 30, 2008
Every gift may begin with K, when it comes to Kay’s Jewerly but god is the hedge in a market ruled by fear. If you believe that inflation, high oil, and a weak dollar will continue to be a common theme there is no better protection than gold bullion at this point. If this position weakens then I would expect to see my other long positions rebound. This a a tradeoff I welcome.
Every hedge begins with G - Gold (GDX, rated BUY)
Myriad Genetics ends development of Flurizan (MYGN, rated SELL)
June 30, 2008
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080630/myriad_genetics_flurizan.html?…
The whole program is gone. The stock will be beaten over the next week or so when the market try to re-value the company’s worth.
On the other hand, AAB-001(from ELN/WYE) has one less competitor worrying about! There may also be a chance that ELN/WYE will go down with the news. I will view this as an excellent opportunity to buy more eln shares in anticipation for the new at ICAD in July.
Myriad Genetics ends development of Flurizan (MYGN, rated SELL)
shareholders won’t complain about the high prices of eggs (CALM, rated BUY)
June 30, 2008
Today+s stock selection:
CALM Cal-Maine Foods : the largest egg producer in the U.S.
Profile:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=CALM
The company’s strengths:
robust revenue growth,
largely solid financial position
with reasonable debt levels by most measures,
notable return on equity,
attractive valuation levels
and
expanding profit margins
Recently, management announced that it was generating so much cash flow that it would begin to pay a third of its net earnings as a dividend. The current yield is now in excess of 10%. Not bad for a company with these kind of growth characteristics.
http://www.forbes.com/2008/06/16/agrium-fertilizer-lindsay-pf…
The current debt-to-equity ratio, 0.49, is low and is below the industry average, implying that there has been
successful management of debt levels. Along with the favorable debt-to-equity ratio, the company maintains
an adequate quick ratio of 1.17, which illustrates the ability to avoid short-term cash problems.
The company’s current return on equity greatly increased when compared to its ROE from the same quarter
one year prior. This is a signal of significant strength within the corporation. Compared to other companies in
the Food Products industry and the overall market, CAL-MAINE FOODS INC’s return on equity significantly
exceeds that of both the industry average and the S&P 500.
I’m rating this stock a buy!
Really impresive fundamantals
http://www.socialpicks.com/astuk/
shareholders won’t complain about the high prices of eggs (CALM, rated BUY)
Buy Agrium (AGU) on The Dip (AGU, rated BUY)
June 30, 2008
The Fundamental point of view on Agriculture trend is "The World Needs Food"
. Agrium’s growth will be very positive for the next several years as demand for fertilizer product is unprecedented today because of agriculture booming that is driven by rising demand for food and biofuel booming for substituting fossil energy.
Agrium produces various crop nutrient products including nitrogen, phosphate, potash, sulphur, and micronutrient; crop protection products such as herbicides, fungicides, and insecticides.
For details of Technical Analysis please visit my blog at :
http://conquerthewallstreet.blogspot.com/2008/06/buy-agrium-a…
Buy Agrium (AGU) on The Dip (AGU, rated BUY)
End of Quarter Dollar Assessment
June 30, 2008
Kathy Lien submits:
It is the end of the quarter and the end to the first half of the year which has been a brutal one for many fund managers. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 14% since the beginning of the year and 7% since the beginning of the quarter.
As for the US dollar, since January it has weakened against every major currency except for the Canadian dollar. Its performance since April on the other hand has been mixed. The dollar is virtually unchanged against the Euro, down more than 5% against the Australian dollar and up more than 5% against the Japanese Yen.
End of Quarter Dollar Assessment
30 Jun 2008 11:40:00 - Top 5 Stocks up on Unusual Volume
June 30, 2008
| Intraday Unusual Volume - Top 5 Up |
| Symbol | Volume % Change |
Price % Change |
News | |
| NNDS | 1373% |  59.51% |
news | |
| CRMT | 385% | 18% |
news | |
| DMRC | 212% | 14.1001% |
news | |
| ENG | 150% | 14.04% |
news | |
| AREX | 135% | 27.3856% |
news | |
|
||||
30 Jun 2008 11:40:00 - Top 5 Stocks up on Unusual Volume
The Fed’s Quandary
June 30, 2008
Larry MacDonald submits:
The Federal Reserve is truly facing a quandary. The U.S. economy is weak and getting weaker but if the Fed lowers its discount rate, it will fan the inflationary infernos building in China, India and other emerging countries that peg their exchange rates to the U.S. dollar (as part of their industrialization strategies based on maintaining export competitiveness). They presently have annual inflations rates greater than 8% but their central banks would still be constrained to follow U.S. rates down in order to maintain the currency peg.
At some point, China, India, and the other emerging countries with managed currencies will find their economies are getting too far out of line and may decide to give up their currency pegs. That means they will have less need to accumulate U.S. dollars. And lower demand for U.S. money could bring the world closer than ever to the long-feared run on the U.S. dollar. Similarly, there will be pressures on U.S. long-term interest rates to rise sharply since foreign countries will have relatively lower U.S. dollar reserves to plow into U.S. treasuries.
Critique of Dollar Policy
June 30, 2008
Phil Davis submits:
Politicians often ask you if you are better of than you were 4 or 8 years ago.
I was reading some campaign rhetoric this weekend and I was amused by the fact that there are still rabid calls to "keep the Bush tax cuts" and it got me to wondering who this is really going to benefit. We all know that the US has gone 40% more in debt than when Bush took office and, obviously, inflation is out of control, especially for the things we import, like commodities.
Two Paths to One Outcome: Slower Growth
June 30, 2008
James Picerno submits:
The jig appears to be up. Many factors have brought us to this point, but it seems that there are two paths left. One or the other will out, eventually.
On the one hand, the Fed may raise interest rates, and thereby support the dollar, which in turn will put downward pressure on oil, which is priced mainly in greenbacks. The alternative path is keeping rates unchanged and so allowing the oil bull market to run skyward unencumbered by any monetary policy braking.
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