Study Confirms Much of U.S. Labor Market ‘Offshorable’
July 7, 2008
Research Recap submits:
Economist Alan Blinder’s 2007 working study, “How Many U.S. Jobs May be Offshorable?,” made a powerful claim about the US economy: that at least 22% of all US jobs are offshorable. A group of students at the Harvard Business School have replicated the study to validate or discount its argument. Their results largely reinforce Blinder’s findings. They are outlined in a new working paper* published by the Harvard Business School, and argue that between 21% and 42% of all US jobs are offshorable.
The very most conservative estimates put the number in the millions, and a number above 20 million seems quite reasonable.
Study Confirms Much of U.S. Labor Market ‘Offshorable’
Are the Shorts Getting Careless?
July 7, 2008
Notable Calls submits:
A good hedgie contact with an excellent track just pinged me with the following:
Hey.. wait a minute… I thought that when oil drops the market would rally? Isn’t that what CNBC tells us?
Are the Shorts Getting Careless?
Bargain Hunting: Stocks With Strong Earnings Growth
July 7, 2008
Last time I was screening top yielding stocks among S&P500 components and this time I run my fundamental stock screen for growth stocks. I set as a criteria "Estimated earnings growth for next 5 years" to be at least 25% per year. There are 18 companies with such a projected growth. For better picture I’ve also added P/E ratio and share price return on yearly and quarterly basis.
Investing strategy based on strong projected EPS growth shows following results. S&P 500 index is yearly down by -18% and average return for selected stocks is up by 20%. On quarterly basis S&P 500 down by -9% and again beaten by growth stock with average return -2%.
Bargain Hunting: Stocks With Strong Earnings Growth
June Was Down 10% - What’s Next?
July 7, 2008
Barry Ritholtz submits:
Welcome to a new quarter, back from the long holiday weekend, and to the start of another earnings season.
There are many cross currents going on, and today, we want to review one in particular. What happens after Markets suffer very large 1 month declines?
June Was Down 10% - What’s Next?
July 7th Indicator Review
July 7, 2008
Brett Steenbarger submits:
click to enlarge
Last week’s indicator review noted that we were oversold, but that indicators were weakening and it was dangerous to try to catch the falling knives. That turned out to be pretty good advice, as we became even more oversold (top chart)–reaching levels seen at recent intermediate-term market bottoms–but continued to see an expansion of stocks making new lows (middle chart). Buying sentiment, as measured by the cumulative TICK (bottom chart) remains nowhere to be seen, as bounces have led to reversals. In short, the weak market has become weaker. Traders looking for signs of capitulation in the usual indicators have been frustrated; it’s been a grinding decline rather than a sharp panic.
07 Jul 2008 16:00:00 - Top 5 Stocks up on Unusual Volume
July 7, 2008
| Intraday Unusual Volume - Top 5 Up |
| Symbol | Volume % Change |
Price % Change |
News | |
| APPX | 1392% |  23.19% |
news | |
| AVAV | 322% | 30.50% |
news | |
| MRTN | 309% | 17% |
news | |
| ADTN | 200% | 24.88% |
news | |
| AVCT | 199% | 23.84% |
news | |
|
||||
07 Jul 2008 16:00:00 - Top 5 Stocks up on Unusual Volume
Dow 30 Price Targets - Too Much Optimism?
July 7, 2008
Hickey and Walters (Bespoke) submit:
Below we highlight the 30 stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. For each one, we include its price, year-to-date change, consensus analyst price target, and the current distance from that price target.
The average stock in the Dow has a price target that is 32.47% above its current price. AIG’s price target is the furthest above current levels at 92%, followed by BAC, C, GM, BA and MSFT. JNJ, CVX, WMT and IBM have price targets that are the closest to current levels.
Dow 30 Price Targets - Too Much Optimism?
Hopes for a Second Half Recovery Fading
July 7, 2008
Hickey and Walters (Bespoke) submit:
As we highlighted earlier, analysts are expecting second quarter earnings to show an 11.2% year over year decline. While consensus estimates throughout the first half of the year were calling for a second half recovery, these numbers as well as trends in recent analyst revisions show that hopes for a rebound in the second half of the year appear to be fading.
In our weekly look at analyst EPS revisions for the stocks in the S&P 1500, we found that over the last month, analysts have raised EPS forecasts for 375 companies, but lowered forecasts for 608 companies. As shown in the chart below, this net differential of -233 (-15.5%) is the weakest reading we have seen since the end of April.
Hopes for a Second Half Recovery Fading
Dividend Growth Investing Can Payoff in the Long Run
July 7, 2008
Tyler McKinna submits:
If one is a dividend growth investor, they are probably considered (or should be) the longest of the long-term investors. To the absolute amazement of other investors, once the stock is purchased, the dividend growth investor may not care what the price of that stock is as long as the dividends continue to grow.
The substantial gains that are reaped by re-investing the growing dividends from our favorite stocks lies in the exponential power of compounding - which often takes years to build into a noticeable contribution to a portfolio.
Dividend Growth Investing Can Payoff in the Long Run
Volatility: VIX/VXV Ratio Approaches Bullish Territory
July 7, 2008
Bill Luby submits:
One of the better indicators over the past 7 ½ months has been the VIX:VXV ratio, which, as the chart below shows, has been quite accurate in calling tops and bottoms in the market following the VXV was launched back in November 2007 and I whose application I pioneered soon thereafter. I mention this because the last time the VIX:VXV ratio gave a clear bullish signal was at mid-March bottom and the ratio is coming close to another VIX:VXV bullish signal today.
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