How Far Could Oil Prices Fall?

July 9, 2008

By now, everyone should realize that oil prices are determining monetary policy. This is true for the US as well as other central banks around the world. Central bankers have been very worried about price pressures and we know that most of the pressure comes from oil.

Oil prices are impacting not only monetary policy, but also stocks and the US dollar. The rebound in oil prices today and geopolitical tensions are driving the US dollar lower. Iran reportedly test fired 9 missiles in the Persian Gulf and according to the Associated Press, the missiles could reach Israel, Turkey, the Arabian peninsula, Afghanistan and Pakistan.

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50 day EMA bounce. (CHK, rated BUY)

July 9, 2008

Short -term trade, or if you are a long term holder, a nice place to add to your long position. There is definetely some consolidation affect taking place so CHK will probably not attempt at old highs anytime soon. This is a good correction for natural gas as it builds a better base for higher prices. Natural Gas and CHK are in accumulation.

50 day EMA bounce. (CHK, rated BUY)

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CIRCOR International Inc. (CIR, rated BUY)

July 9, 2008

CIRCOR International, Inc. engages in the design, manufacture, and distribution of valves and fluid control products in the United States and internationally. The company has two product groups: Instrumentation and Thermal Fluid Controls Products, and Energy Products. The Instrumentation and Thermal Fluid Controls Products Group designs, manufactures, and distributes valves, fittings, and controls for various end-uses, including instrumentation, aerospace, cryogenic, and steam applications. Its products include precision valves, compression tube fittings, control valves, relief valves, butterfly valves, solenoid valves, couplers, regulators, switches, strainers, samplers, and aerospace landing gear. The Energy Products Group designs, manufactures, and distributes flanged-end and threaded-end floating and trunnion ball valves, needle valves, check valves, butterfly valves, large forged steel ball valves, gate valves, control valves, relief valves, pressure regulators, pipeline measurement, and pipeline closures for use in oil, gas, and chemical processing and industrial applications. CIRCOR International sells its products to distributors and end-users primarily through commissioned representatives, as well as through its direct sales forces. The company was founded in 1999 and is based in Burlington, Massachusetts.

nalysts’ Recommendation:	Buy
30 Days Ago:	Buy

Analysts’ Target:	$54

Analysts’ Targets
Friedman, Billings, Ramsey & C	$52
Mkt Perform
Friday, May 02, 2008
BMO Capital Markets	$53
Outperform
Friday, May 02, 2008
RBC Capital Markets	$55
Sector Perform
Friday, May 02, 2008
BB & T Capital Markets	$54
Buy
Tuesday, February 26, 2008

CIRCOR International Inc. (CIR, rated BUY)

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A BIG PS…sorry (AAPL, rated BUY)

July 9, 2008

I forgot to mention I realy do believe that there is a super secret function, app or ability that has not been released. Sort of like the cone of silence in the ‘Get Smart’ TV show, but this time it works.

REMEMBER!!! You heard it here first…like Cracker Jack. Caramel coated pop corn, peanuts and a PRIZE. Thats what you get with the 3G IPHONE…

quothe the Staples…’there is more’

A BIG PS…sorry (AAPL, rated BUY)

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Notes on Hedge Fund Struggles

July 9, 2008

David Enke submits:

As recently reported at Bloomberg, hedge funds have produced their worst first-half performance since 1990, when the firm Hedge Fund Research began tracking returns of the hedge fund industry. Hedge funds are down collectively 0.75% year to date. Lower equity returns, the impact of volatility, and the inability to borrow cheaply due to the credit crunch all appear to be affecting performance.

The impact of less leverage has been discussed for a while now, and the fallout of lower equity returns is evident to all investors. What has not been discussed as much is how increased volatility is apparently affecting some funds. This is ironic given that many funds and traders thrive on volatility, or at least need some type of market movement. Now, many managers are finding that they cannot cope with the changing nature of the markets.

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Notes on Hedge Fund Struggles

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Solar will run (SPWR, rated BUY)

July 9, 2008

As oil continues to fall toward $120, I think solar stocks will recover marginally with the market. Additionally, I like most of the solar industry besides FSLR (and even them some) on a valuation basis. The market is factoring in the possibility of stopping the solar subsidy, but I think that chance is really 0 in an election year.

Solar will run (SPWR, rated BUY)

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Finding Meaning in Volatility

July 9, 2008

James Picerno submits:

Yesterday we profiled correlations; today, we update volatility.

In preview, vol is up, which is to say that it’s no longer down, as it was for several years previous. The bear market in volatility ended in late 2006/early 2007, as our chart below reminds. As it happened, the windup in vol’s decline preceded the start of the bear market in equities. If you’re thinking that volatility’s nadir was a clue of things to come, you’re right. In fact, we considered no less in the recent past, including this post from January 2007, when we advised, after a long spell of falling standard deviations: "Higher volatility is probably coming, one day, and history reminds that sometimes higher volatility is forged by falling prices."

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Finding Meaning in Volatility

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09 Jul 2008 11:40:00 - Top 5 Stocks up on Unusual Volume

July 9, 2008

Intraday Unusual Volume - Top 5 Up

Symbol	Volume % Change	Price % Change	News
QLGC	319%	15.22%	news
AFAM	259%	27.55%	news
FSYS	236%	31.80%	news
MELI	218%	30.21%	news
RMBS	196%	17.82%	news

09 Jul 2008 11:40:00 - Top 5 Stocks up on Unusual Volume

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What If What Economists Taught Us Is Wrong?

July 9, 2008

Tim Iacono submits:

In this Financial Times commentary, Wolfgang Münchau comes ever so close to asking what must be one of the most difficult of all questions for any practicing economist to ask, "What if what they taught you is wrong?"

[Note: This is similar to what some U.S.-based financial advisers might be asking themselves today, eight years into a secular bear market in stocks where "stocks for the long run" may not make a whole lot of sense for someone whose "long run" is only 15 years or so and happened to begin around 2000.]

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What If What Economists Taught Us Is Wrong?

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Is Short Momentum Waning?

July 9, 2008

Macro Man submits:

Yesterday was an instructive (and, for equity shorts, expensive) lesson that it’s not how you start, it’s how you finish. Tuesday might have started ugly early, but provided evidence that the equity market Maginot Line is providing a more effective resistance to the marauding hordes than the real one ever did.

So what now? Macro Man can feel the near-term conviction draining out of him like water out of a bath. That VIX came off so sharply (2.5 points) with yesterday’s rally makes him concerned that the real pain trade out there is long equity vol. The same held true in April, and we got a horrible, drawn out squeeze in cash indices as a result.

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