Vacation-Proofing Your Portfolio
July 25, 2008
Phil Davis submits:
When driving a car and some object appears on the road ahead, do you usually run right over it or do your best to avoid it? Don’t we all take action in real life based on the new information we receive that changes the old paradigm?
Take the first two guys in this video: Who would you rather be, the first or the second guy? While the second gentleman reacts and looks ridiculous in so doing, he’s the guy that is more likely to survive when real disaster hits because he’s reacting to new information. In fact he doesn’t even know what’s making everyone else react, he just knows that when 99% are moving one way in panic, it’s best not to fight the crowd or he will be trampled. It’s no different in the market. Pride, ego and old theses have no place when new information directly contradicts an existing trade.
Vacation-Proofing Your Portfolio
25 Jul 2008 16:00:00 - Top 5 Stocks up on Unusual Volume
July 25, 2008
| Intraday Unusual Volume - Top 5 Up |
| Symbol | Volume % Change |
Price % Change |
News | |
| FDML | 643% |  14.95% |
news | |
| VISN | 621% | 22.70% |
news | |
| NUVA | 466% | 54.86% |
news | |
| SAIA | 367% | 15.87% |
news | |
| SONO | 364% | 32.15% |
news | |
|
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25 Jul 2008 16:00:00 - Top 5 Stocks up on Unusual Volume
Developers Diversified Realty Corp. Q2 2008 Earnings Call Transcript
July 25, 2008
Developers Diversified Realty Corp. (DDR)
Q2 2008 Earnings Call
Developers Diversified Realty Corp. Q2 2008 Earnings Call Transcript
Forex Wrap-Up: Headlines Hurt Stocks But Not Dollar
July 25, 2008
Grace Cheng submits:
Negative headlines relating to the US economy may be dominating these days - worse-than-expected existing home sales; Ford’s (F) $8.7 billion loss for second quarter etc - but still none of them have been able to dislodge the US dollar. This week marks the second week the dollar closed up against major currencies such as the Euro, Swiss franc, Japanese yen, Aussie and Kiwi, and this has been due to traders repricing their expectations of a near-term rate hike by the Federal Reserve after Philadelphia Fed chief Plosser said that interest rates should be hiked sooner or later. And as mentioned earlier, it doesn’t matter that he only has one vote to give since his sentiments are likely to echo that of his other voting FOMC colleagues.
Sluggish US housing data released this week, especially that of US existing home sales, is likely to weigh on US stocks, but is unlikely to affect the USD much. In any case, the greenback had plenty of support from Friday’s release of economic data. The final University of Michigan consumer sentiment index came out better than what most had expected, jumping to 61.2, from 56.4 in June, compared to the initial reading of 56.6. Plus, US durable goods orders for June also increased by a larger-than-expected 0.8%, with demand rising for automobiles as those orders rose 1.8%, the most since July 2007.
Forex Wrap-Up: Headlines Hurt Stocks But Not Dollar
American Business: On Sale
July 25, 2008
David Enke submits:
As highlighted in BusinessWeek, and illustrated by the recent acquisition of Anheuser-Busch (BUD) by InBev (INBVF.PK), the United States is on sale. The weak stock market and even weaker U.S. dollar are allowing foreign buyers to purchase U.S. companies at discount prices. In the past five years, 2,331 U.S. firms with a total value of $772.3 billion were purchased by foreign buyers, according to data provider Capital IQ. In 2007, 614 U.S. firms, valued at $294.4 billion, were acquired by foreign entities, up from 541 deals valued at $155.1 billion for 2006, and 226 firms valued at $49.6 billion in 2003. While foreign buying slowed some with the slowing global economy in 2008, there has still been 266 foreign deals announced year-to-date valued at $121 billion.
Not surprisingly, bankers and M&A specialists expect the deals to continue and even accelerate if the dollar continues to be weak against the Euro. Foreign buyers also seem to have easier access to credit, compared to their American counterparts. Even those American companies who can obtain credit are less likely to do so given the uncertain economic environment.
Sector Performance in the Last Two Bull Moves
July 25, 2008
Bill Luby submits:
I have been fielding a bunch of questions about sectors, particularly oil and energy, over the past few days. Included in most of my responses has been a comparison of the March to May bull move and the most recent move that came off of the July 15 bottom. Since I rarely repost content from my subscriber newsletter, I thought it might be a good excuse to cut and a paste a section from Wednesday’s newsletter on sectors:
Let me reflect on the nature of the March to May rally from SPX 1256 to SPX 1440, a gain of 184 points. As shown in the sector breakdown (top graph), there was strong sector participation across the board. Interestingly enough, energy was the top performing sector, followed by technology and materials. Financials fell in the middle of the pack
Sector Performance in the Last Two Bull Moves
Friday Options Update: XLF, C, CROX, JNPR, GDX, TOL, UHS, COLM, TEN
July 25, 2008
Rebecca Engmann Darst contributed to this report.
XLF – Early in the session today it looked as though financial issues might dust off at bit after yesterday’s ruinous rout, but most big bank stocks have reversed early gains and are now resolutely in the red as the market’s “dust bowl pessimism” continues to stick to the shoes of these stocks. Even during the gains of the early session, option traders seemed to show a knowing inclination to put spreads, continuing a trend that began Wednesday with the prolific spread activity in Wells Fargo (WFC), and continued throughout yesterday with action in Bank of America (BAC) and Citigroup (C). Shares in the financial sector ETF (XLF) are showing a downtick of .81% to $20.78 at present dispatch, as large block trades have driven the volume up to more than 560,000 active of the noon hour. We continue to see heavy buying pressure in August 18 puts on volume of more than 60,000 lots at this strike. Block trade action in the August 17 puts has continued throughout the morning, with a large raft of these puts apparently selling to the bid after some early buying pressure: the 23-cent premium on that position reflecting about a 10% likelihood of occurring. Elsewhere we saw fresh volume enter the middle of the market at the December 21 put line at $2.55 per contract. The takeaway here is that option traders appear readily positioned for a further unwind in the financials notwithstanding some intermittent catches of breath to the upside.
Friday Options Update: XLF, C, CROX, JNPR, GDX, TOL, UHS, COLM, TEN
Earnings Preview: Simon Property Group
July 25, 2008
Simon Property Group (SPG), a REIT, is expected to report Q2 earnings before market open Monday, July 28, with a conference call scheduled for 11:00 am ET.
Guidance
Analysts are looking for EPS of $1.49 on revenue of $884.98M. The consensus range for EPS is $1.46 to $1.54, while the consensus range for revenue is $814.15M to $917.30M, according to First Call.
Earnings Preview: Simon Property Group
U.S. Dollar Shaking Off Risk Aversion
July 25, 2008
Kathy Lien submits:
Even though the stock market dropped by the largest amount since 2000, the US dollar is shaking off risk aversion to rebound back towards its monthly highs against the Japanese Yen. I’ve been keeping a close eye on gold prices and the fall in gold this morning confirms that the markets have not been spooked by the drop in the Dow. The strong durable goods numbers dollar bulls hope. The stock market could actually recover today since the durables number indicates that not all businesses have cut back their spending.
The divergence between the price action of the dollar, the stock market, gold and oil prices indicate that risk aversion yesterday was limited. Even though the dollar dropped against the Japanese Yen, it rallied against all of the other G10 currencies. Within all of the volatility yesterday, the dollar index actually rallied.
U.S. Dollar Shaking Off Risk Aversion
NVIDIA Corp (NVDA) is a BUY
July 25, 2008
Stock is oversold. Growth in US may be stagnant, but expect growing demand from other countries, especially since weak dollar makes NVDA chips attractive. Management is very competent, CEO was a chip designer himself. Main competitor AMD has hit a rough patch and is too busy bleeding cash to make ATI competetive. Not too mention, low stock price makes it attractive buyout target, especially given its market postition & technological expertise. Given stalling semiconductor market, M&A could be attractive growth strategy. At a $121B market cap, Intel could easily absorb NVDA’s $6b (Keep in mind this could draw the Government’s attention). Invest in NVDA for the long term, but you may be able to cash out early if they are acquired.
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