D.R. Horton, Inc. F3Q08 (Qtr. End 06/31/08) Earnings Call Transcript
August 5, 2008
D.R. Horton, Inc. (DHI)
Q3 FY08 Earnings Call
D.R. Horton, Inc. F3Q08 (Qtr. End 06/31/08) Earnings Call Transcript
Inland Real Estate Corporation Q2 2008 Earnings Call Transcript
August 5, 2008
Inland Real Estate Corporation (IRC)
Q2 2008 Earnings Call Transcript
Inland Real Estate Corporation Q2 2008 Earnings Call Transcript
Parkway Properties, Inc. Q2 2008 Earnings Call Transcript
August 5, 2008
Parkway Properties, Inc. (PKY)
Q2 2008 Earnings Call
Parkway Properties, Inc. Q2 2008 Earnings Call Transcript
No Doubt About It Being A Great Day But Before You Get Too Excited Study Your History About Bear Market FOMC Meeting Rallies. They Are Always Big But As 2000-2002 Taught Us Be Very Careful About Believing In Them.
August 5, 2008
I know that sounds super cautious but in this market a lot of people are quick to call this bear dead. That is my first clue that we are probably not dead. The second clue is that I clearly remember my biggest gains destroyed day during the first trading session of 2001 when the Fed hit the market with a surprise .50 basis point cut. The market exploded and destroyed my profits and shorts. About two months later if I would not have been scared out of my shorts I would have made a lot more money. I sure did lose a lot on that FOMC rally in a bear market.
Thankfully, do to this history lesson I do not get too excited when I see such a bullish day as today. I am grounded, in other words. Did you notice that volume was below the 50 day average volume on the NYSE despite the rise and that it was only barely above average on the Nasdaq. For those that know FTD histories about launching new bull markets know THAT IT WILL ALWAYS APPEAR THAT THE MARKET HAS MADE THE MOST OF ITS GAINS WITHOUT YOU. But by just looking at history you know that is not the truth and that missing out on those initial gains does nothing to prevent huge returns in your stocks. My problem with today’s rally is that it did not have that HUGE VOLUME and HUGE PRICE gains that come with the CONVINCING bottoms of the past. That has thrown me and is the reason I doubt we have nothing more than a trading rally here. WHICH I WILL GLADLY TAKE HERE!!! I will take anything that gives more charts like the stock that was near-perfect and is now up almost 17% in three days. Those that have studied their past and know what perfect charts looked, or those that were in the chat room, knew that we had a potential n this one.
However, the problem is we just have one stock near perfect and tonight my BOP scans, which alert me to possible great future longs, are still dry. If this was THE BOTTOM we would have 10-20 stocks with patterns similar to APII and EMIS. That is huge volume and BOP coming off the lows. We, personally in my ow opinion, would be seeing a lot more hotties. Does that mean we can’t soon. Absolutely not. We have a ton of retail, bank, and tech stocks that if they could make one more base on top of the base they are coming out of now, for example DRIV if it could make one more green to max green BOP base and breakout would be perfect.
So we are getting there but we are not there yet. When I get done with my major long scan and go over some other charts I will return iwth another nightly post.
Aloha, for now.
DCT Industrial Trust Q2 Earnings Call Transcript
August 5, 2008
DCT Industrial Trust (DCT)
Q2 2008 Earnings Call
DCT Industrial Trust Q2 Earnings Call Transcript
Two Types of Speculation: One Harmful, One Not
August 5, 2008
Mark Thoma submits:
Suppose you think that a hurricane might disrupt oil flows in the future. What should you do today? Tropical storm Edouardo gives an example. As the storm approached, people believed there was a chance that oil flows would be disrupted in the future, and the current price began rising as a consequence. If you expect a higher price in the future due to reduced supply or any other reason, you should begin purchasing and storing oil now to take advantage of the higher price in the future, and the increased demand for oil drives today’s price
This is speculation - the storm may or may not actually hit and disrupt oil supplies - but it’s not the kind of speculation we should worry about. We want this kind of speculation - which reflects underlying fundamentals - to occur. The expectation of a supply disruption in the future causes the market to take actions today and store oil for when it will be needed, and this provides insurance against the potential supply disruption, insurance that reflects the probability that the storm will cause problems (the larger the expected fall in future supply, the bigger the price change, and the more that will be stored for the future).
Two Types of Speculation: One Harmful, One Not
Overview: U.S. Volatility Indices
August 5, 2008
Bill Luby submits:
As a companion to yesterday’s The Evolution of the Volatility Index Family Tree post, I thought it might be helpful to include a comparative look at the major U.S. volatility indices, which is what the table below hopes to accomplish.
The main distinguishing factor for these indices is whether or not futures and options are available as a means to trade the underlying. It is also important to note not just the launch date for the index, but also the period for which historical data are available. In some cases [e.g., VIX, VXO, VXD], this extends back several years prior to the official index launch.
Overview: U.S. Volatility Indices
Fantasy vs. Reality in Financial Ratios
August 5, 2008
Robert Salomon submits:
I apologize in advance if this post is a little wonkish, but I thought it was an issue important enough to warrant comment. I promise to return to my usually un-wonkish ways in future posts.
Myles Shaver and I wrote a paper several years ago in which we questioned the usefulness of a particular ratio - export intensity (click here for a copy of that paper). Export intensity is simply a ratio of export-to-total sales (expressed formally as export sales divided by total sales, where total sales is domestic sales plus foreign sales). Export intensity, you see, has become one metric by which researchers gauge the export performance of a firm. Our objection to this measure was that when export intensity increases, it can be difficult to determine whether that happens because export sales increase, domestic sales decrease, or some combination of the two (by mathematical construction, both end in the same result). Moreover, because export and domestic sales are interrelated, we must consider their joint impact on each other rather than artificially hold one (e.g., domestic sales) constant.
Fantasy vs. Reality in Financial Ratios
Bill Miller’s Value Trust Fund Runs Into a Tough Market
August 5, 2008
Trader Mark submits:
I’ve written about Bill Miller in the past (Apr 9: Bill Miller is #596! Ouch) not to criticize but to show just how hard it is to stay on top…
How far the mighty have fallen … Bill Miller is a mutual fund manager who had an incredible streak of 15 years in a row of beating the S&P 500 (this ended in 2006). He took large contrarian bets in concentrated fashion which is why I followed him with interest. I saw an article a few months ago about how he was buying financials, homebuilders, and the like and I just felt bad. Maybe over a 4-6 year time frame, but for the short term…. not so much (although I can at least understand the homebuilders because about 2 months ago they stopped going down no matter how bad the news was - but he was buying 2 years ago, not 2 months ago).
Bill Miller’s Value Trust Fund Runs Into a Tough Market
Timing the Recession
August 5, 2008
Felix Salmon submits:
Don Fishback and Barry Ritholtz are shocked — shocked! — that the InTrade recession contract is based on hard GDP numbers rather than, um, something else, maybe an NBER pronouncement the timing of which is entirely unknown.
The fact is that prediction markets have to be based on something hard and fast like GDP numbers: they need an expiry date, and the results need to be completely unambiguous. This isn’t a "flaw in the betting process," as Ritholtz would have it: it’s a feature, not a bug.
-
Recent Posts
- Renewed Infrastructure Growth in Environmentalists’ Best Interest
- Geithner, Summers Represent Change at Treasury
- Existing Home Sales Clunk Along Bottom
- Shelf Filings Are Increasing, But Don’t Get Excited
- More on Hindsight Bias
- Obama’s Real Economic Team
- Forex Interplay: Euro vs. Dollar As Risk Appetite Returns
- U.S. Public Pension Plans Able to Recover from Market Slump
- Profiting From Risk Aversion
- Wall Street Journal: Homebuilders Want $250 Billion Stimulus
-
Latest S.E.C. Filings- 6-K - Nevoro Inc. (0001432768) (Filer)
- 6-K - Nevoro Inc. (0001432768) (Filer)
- 6-K - Nevoro Inc. (0001432768) (Filer)
- 6-K - Nevoro Inc. (0001432768) (Filer)
- 6-K - Nevoro Inc. (0001432768) (Filer)
- 6-K - Nevoro Inc. (0001432768) (Filer)
- DEF 14A - Sally Beauty Holdings, Inc. (0001368458) (Filer)
- 20-F - NOVOGEN LTD (0001075880) (Filer)
- N-CSRS - TORREY US STRATEGY PARTNERS LLC (0001170035) (Filer)
- N-CSRS - TORREY INTERNATIONAL STRATEGY PARTNERS LLC (0001170123) (Filer)