Radian Group Inc. Q2 2008 Earnings Call Transcript

August 11, 2008

Radian Group Inc. (RDN)

Q2 2008 Earnings Call Transcript

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11 Aug 2008 16:00:00 - Top 5 Stocks up on Unusual Volume

August 11, 2008

Intraday Unusual Volume - Top 5 Up

Symbol	Volume % Change	Price % Change	News
MPWR	293%	27.91%	news
BECN	272%	15.20%	news
AFAM	217%	44%	news
TRLG	208%	30.89%	news
UAUA	204%	12.27%	news

11 Aug 2008 16:00:00 - Top 5 Stocks up on Unusual Volume

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Dollar 7-Day Winning Streaks

August 11, 2008

Hickey and Walters (Bespoke) submit:

The US Dollar index has now been up for 7 days in a row. This has now happened 24 times since 1970, and as shown below, the median return on day 8 and over the next week have been minimal.

Recently, the numbers have been more negative, however. Six out of the last seven similar winning streaks have seen the Dollar fall on day 8 and over the next week.

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Dollar 7-Day Winning Streaks

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More on the Dollar

August 11, 2008

Hickey and Walters (Bespoke) submit:

The US Dollar index is now up 6.33% since bottoming on April 22nd, making this the first rally of more than 5% since the 14% rally that ended in November 2005. The previous decline of 22.75% without a 5% rally was the second longest for the currency since daily pricing began in 1971.

As shown below, the average 5%+ rally for the Dollar lasts 186 calendar days and sees a gain of 12.95%. The current rally of 6.33% has lasted 108 days.

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Stronger Dollar and the Stock Market

August 11, 2008

Hickey and Walters (Bespoke) submit:

Given the dollar’s recent strength, there has been some concern that exports, the one bright spot still underpinning the economy, will get hurt. While a stronger dollar certainly makes US goods less attractive relative to foreign products, you would need to see a much bigger and longer rally in the dollar before the positive benefits start to reverse themselves. Additionally, while exports would get hurt, the US imports more than its exports, therefore on a net basis the portion of the economy that benefits is greater than the portion that gets hurt.

A look at the historical record also shows that a strong dollar is much better for stocks than a weak one. Below, we highlight a chart from prior reports we have sent out to Bespoke Premium subscribers. Since rallies and declines in the dollar are typically measured in years rather than weeks or months, the S&P 500 has averaged positive returns during both dollar bull and bear markets.

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Stronger Dollar and the Stock Market

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Have We Reached the Turning Point?

August 11, 2008

Trader Mark submits:

Very positive action Monday after surpassing S&P 1290. Still 2 hours to go but any close over 1305 or so would make us happy campers from the long side. (need to stress - we need to close above that level; not simply trade over it during the day) I’ve continued to reduce exposure (un-hedge us) from the short side; now we just need to actually find stocks on the long side that go up, instead of down.

With this sort of action we can potentially see a move all the way back up to the 200 day moving average (1370 and falling) although not at the pace we’ve experienced the past few sessions. Or maybe we will, everything happens in lightning speed nowadays. When we get there will revisit the dark side of the market as this rally is yet another hoax in my opinion. Our troubles do not go away just because crude oil is lower.

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Have We Reached the Turning Point?

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More Money Making Ideas for This Market

August 11, 2008

IndexUniverse submits:

By Matthew Hougan

Since Jim Wiandt opened the Pandora’s Box of active investing, here are my own thoughts.

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More Money Making Ideas for This Market

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Has There Been ‘Intervention’ In the Dollar’s Turnaround?

August 11, 2008

Michael Shedlock submits:

The US dollar rallied fast and furious last week. The dollar rally was the biggest in 8 years vs. the Euro. This immediately brought out calls of Dollar Intervention such as the one below. Note: the arrow and circle in deep blue were added by me.

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Has There Been ‘Intervention’ In the Dollar’s Turnaround?

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Is the Market Still a Future Indicator?

August 11, 2008

Barry Ritholtz submits:

At this point, you would have thought the Efficient Market Hypothesis would have died a quiet death. But as is its wont on Wall Street, myths, bad theories, and old information linger far longer than one would expect.

Today’s case in point: The WSJ Ahead of the Tape column today (Predicting What’s Next Gets Harder) looks at how much of a future discounting mechanism the markets actually are:

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Is the Market Still a Future Indicator?

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National Retail Properties: Dividend Analysis

August 11, 2008

Dobromir Stoyanov submits:

National Retail Properties, Inc. is a publicly owned equity real estate investment trust. The firm acquires, owns, manages, and develops retail properties in the United States. It provides complete turn-key and built-to-suit development services including market analysis, site selection and acquisition, entitlements, permitting, and construction management. The firm also focuses on purchasing and financing net-leased retail properties.

The company is a dividend achiever as well as a component of the S&P 1500 index. It has been increasing its dividends for the past 18 consecutive years. From 1998 up until June 30 2008 this dividend growth stock has delivered an annual average total return of 9.60 % to its shareholders.

At the same time company has managed to deliver a 2.90% average annual increase in its FFO since 1998. FFO is a common measurement for a REIT. It is an alternative non-GAAP measure that is considered to be a good indicator of a company’s ability to pay dividends.

The ROE has been increasing from its 1998-2004 range of 7% -10% rising to almost 15% in 2007.

Annual dividend payments have increased over the past 10 years by an average of 1.6% annually, which is lower than the growth in FFO. At 1.6% growth in dividends it would take you decades to double your dividend income.

If we invested $100,000 in NNN on December 31, 1997 we would have bought 5596 shares. In January 1998 your monthly dividend check would have been for $1679. If you kept reinvesting the dividends though instead of spending them, your monthly dividend income would have risen to $4873 by August 2008. For a period of 10 years, your monthly dividend payment would have increased by 25 %. If you reinvested it though and took advantage of the monthly compounding effect, your quarterly dividend income would have increased by 190%.

The payout from funds from operations has remained at the 75% - 92% range for the majority of our study period. One of the reasons why I wasn’t enthusiastic about the stock was because of this high payout. Do not repeat the same mistake as me however – In order to maintain their tax status as a REIT for federal income tax purposes, they generally are required to distribute dividends to our stockholders aggregating annually at least 90% of our REIT taxable income (determined without regard to the dividends paid deduction and by excluding net capital gains), and are subject to income tax to the extent we distribute less than 100% of the REIT taxable income (including net capital gains). In addition to that, the fact that the company has managed to keep increasing its profits and dividends while keeping the payout form operations stable is a positive sign.