Toll Brothers F3Q08 Outlook Conference Call Transcript

August 13, 2008

Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL)

F3Q08 Outlook Conference Call

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El Arian On Three Secular Transformations That Are Changing Markets

August 13, 2008

Tim Price submits:

“Confusion is a word we have invented for an order which is not understood.” – Henry Miller.

The response of certain market participants to recent financial turmoil “reminds me of the way five-to-seven-year-olds play soccer: players on both teams tend to chase the ball in the manner of a noisy herd. They are, in effect, totally data dependent. Their approach stands in sharp contrast to the behavior of older kids. Anchored by a better understanding of the game and more of a strategic mindset, the older players seek to maintain positions on the field and rely more on letting the ball do the work.” That’s a particularly apposite image from Mohamed El-Erian’s just published When Markets Collide: investment strategies for the age of global economic change (McGraw-Hill, 2008).

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El Arian On Three Secular Transformations That Are Changing Markets

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Pound Sterling Falls On Hard Times

August 13, 2008

Money Morning submits:

By Jason Simpkins

The British pound fell to a 22-month low Wednesday, after the Bank of England [BOE] offered a gloomy outlook for the U.K. economy and the chance of an interest rate cut increased.

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Pound Sterling Falls On Hard Times

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Why is Bill Miller Increasing His Stake in Freddie Mac?

August 13, 2008

Trader Mark submits:

For those of you new to the markets, Bill Miller used to be the mutual fund star - beating the S&P 500 for 15 years in a row. He has fallen into tough times the past few years as we outlined in April. As I wrote then:

Bill Miller is a mutual fund manager who had an incredible streak of 15 years in a row of beating the S&P 500 (this ended in 2006). He took large contrarian bets in concentrated fashion so hence why I have followed him with interest. I saw an article a few months ago about how he was buying financials, homebuilders, and the like and I just felt bad. Maybe over a 4-6 year time frame, but for the short term…. not so much.

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Why is Bill Miller Increasing His Stake in Freddie Mac?

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Oil Rebounds - Fast Money Recap (8/13/08)

August 13, 2008

Recap of CNBC’s Fast Money, Wednesday August 13.

Financial Culprits - Lehman Brothers (LEH), Bank of America (BAC), HSBC (HBC), Deere (DE)

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Oil Rebounds - Fast Money Recap (8/13/08)

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Enjoy These ‘Dollar Days’ - But Will They Last?

August 13, 2008

Hard Assets Investor submits:

By Eli Neusner

The dollar’s long downward slide may be over, but more significantly, a bull market of historical proportions in commodities may be on its last legs. The two trends are by no means unrelated, and it’s not coincidental that they’re happening simultaneously. There are both fundamental and speculative reasons for both trading patterns. Let’s take a closer look and see why they’re happening and what they mean.

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Enjoy These ‘Dollar Days’ - But Will They Last?

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Dividend Stocks Finally Showing Life

August 13, 2008

Hickey and Walters (Bespoke) submit:

At the July lows, the Dow Jones Dividend index was down 35% since the market peaked last October. Compared to a decline of 22% for the S&P 500, dividend stocks (which have a lot of financials) underperformed mightily. Since the July lows, however, it has been dividend stocks that have helped bring the index back.

As shown below, the Dow Jones Dividend index is now down just 23% since 10/9/07, while the S&P 500 is down 17%. Since July 15th, the dividend index is up 18%, while the S&P is up 6.4%.

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Dividend Stocks Finally Showing Life

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Historical S&P 500 Earnings Beat Rates

August 13, 2008

Hickey and Walters (Bespoke) submit:

Since Q4 ‘06, the percentage of companies in the S&P 500 beating EPS forecasts had been on the decline. This quarter, however, we’ve seen the earnings "beat" rate pick back up again. As shown in the chart below, the trend for companies "beating" estimates has sloped upward since we have data going back to 1993 (via Bloomberg). What this says about companies and the analysts that covers this is a different topic for a different time.

If you look back at the bear market from 2000 to 2002, you’ll see that "beat" rates declined throughout the bear, but actually started ticking higher before the market made its bottom in October 2002. Hopefully the same scenario is playing out now.

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Historical S&P 500 Earnings Beat Rates

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Second Quarter Earnings Analysis by Sector

August 13, 2008

Hickey and Walters (Bespoke) submit:

Below we highlight the percentage of S&P 500 companies that beat earnings estimates in the second quarter by sector. With 435 out of 500 companies already having reported, the final numbers shouldn’t change too much from here.

As shown, Telecom and Industrials have beaten estimates at a very high rate (just under 89%). Health Care, Consumer Staples, Technology and Materials are the other sectors doing better than the S&P 500 as a whole, while Consumer Discretionary, Energy, Utilities and Financials have done worse than the S&P 500.

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