Dollar Up 10 Days in a Row
August 14, 2008
Hickey and Walters (Bespoke) submit:
Since our post on the Dollar breakout last week, the currency has continued its trek higher. It is currently trading well into overbought territory, however, and is also up ten days in a row for just the fifth time since we have daily pricing going back to 1971.
The last ten-day winning streak for the currency was all the way back in May 1990. The currency has gone up eleven days in a row just twice, and it has never been up twelve days in a row. While we expect the uptrend to continue for the Dollar, it can’t go up every day.
XSI Home Run
August 14, 2008
Finally a stock that has done exactly what it is supposed to do. That makes two in a week: CRD.b and XSI.
Congrats to all that loaded up. I was going to LOAD UP on XSI and instead kept it a regular position. The gains are still very nice and sweet and even though I blame myself for not LOADING UP like I said I was in the chat room I am still happy with the gains. Congratulations to all subscribers that bought these very pretty charts. They were not perfect but they sure acted like they were. This is how all of our longs will act at the start of a new bull market. In 1999 and 2003 they all acted like CRD.b and XSI. This is how it used to always be. Right now, we got lucky, and the market was so crazy I couldn’t even LOAD UP. Still some big gains 25% and 30% by each stock in one day. That is how it will be when the trend turns up again in the indexes. I can’t wait till this becomes the norm. For now though I have to kick myself for not following my own advice and loading up on XSI. My excuse is that it was too thin and the market is acting like a psychotic prisoner. Congratulations to everyone who got these beauties!!!
No Signs of a Housing Bottom
August 14, 2008
Jordan Kahn submits:
For those looking for signs of a bottom in the housing market, today’s NAR Metropolitan home sales report for Q2 offers little hope.
Overall, single-family home sales in the U.S. fell -7.6% in Q2. The strongest region was the Midwest (-0.9%) while the weakest region was the West (-17.4%). Here are some of the top and bottom performers:
Inflation Rises to 5.6%, the Highest in 17 Years
August 14, 2008
The Labor Department reported inflation is now rising at its fastest pace since 1991 - an annual rate of 5.6 percent - as food and energy prices continue to surge.
Tim Iacono submits:
Are Today’s Leading ETFs Lagging Indicators?
August 14, 2008
Gary Gordon submits:
The Investor’s Business Daily asks for my feedback on a regular basis. I am particularly fond of Trang Ho, who happens to cover the exchange traded universe for IBD.
Trang recently wrote a piece that highlighted the strength of the Consumer Staples ETF (XLP) relative to the S&P 500 over the prior 12 months. XLP is up 8% in the time frame while the S&P 500 is down 10% from a year ago.
Are Today’s Leading ETFs Lagging Indicators?
Hedge Fund Tracking: Tremblant Capital
August 14, 2008
Market Folly submits:
Four times a year, hedge funds & asset managers with > $100 million AUM (assets under management) are required to report to the SEC their holdings from the previous quarter. I check these 13F filings quarterly just to get a sense as to where these funds are putting their money sector wise. If you just sit down and do some simple number crunching between last quarter’s 13F and this quarter’s 13F, you can see exactly where these funds have been moving their money.
Please note, these 13F’s should be treated as a lagging indicator simply because the 13F’s that were just released August 10-15th 2008 show the funds’ holdings as of June 30th 2008. So, in the past month and a half, they could have completely changed their portfolio. But, at the same time, its easy to see which sectors they are flocking to. See more of my introduction to the current series here.
Hedge Fund Tracking: Tremblant Capital
The Long and Winding Road of Foreclosures
August 14, 2008
Market Folly submits:
Taken from Credit Suisse, we see just how long and winding the path of destruction really is. Adjustable Rate Mortgage Resets will be an ongoing source of pain for many Americans. Americans who signed up for ARM mortgages did so because of the low teaser interest rates they were receiving. And, eventually, these teaser rates revert back to much higher rates. Many Americans will not be able to afford their new mortgage rates sparking yet another round of foreclosures.
This is not ‘new’ news by any means. But it seems to me that some people have yet to truly grasp just how far from ’safety’ we are. Keep in mind that even after these resets take place, it could take many months before the homeowners finally hit rock bottom and have to foreclose. ARM’s will continue to reset en masse up until December 2011. Then factor in the many months afterwards that Americans will be defaulting on their new, higher mortgages.
The Long and Winding Road of Foreclosures
14 Aug 2008 16:00:00 - Top 5 Stocks up on Unusual Volume
August 14, 2008
| Intraday Unusual Volume - Top 5 Up |
| Symbol | Volume % Change |
Price % Change |
News | |
| RDEN | 382% |  18.80% |
news | |
| CTRP | 378% | 53.50% |
news | |
| AVNXD | 311% | 11.49% |
news | |
| NGA | 240% | 10.68% |
news | |
| HANS | 225% | 29.98% |
news | |
|
||||
14 Aug 2008 16:00:00 - Top 5 Stocks up on Unusual Volume
Five Forces Driving the Euro Down
August 14, 2008
Kathy Lien submits:
In the two weeks that I have been away, there have been dramatic moves in the currency market. Not only did the US dollar carve out a bottom, but the greenback’s recovery has been impressive. In less 1 month, the EUR/USD has plunged 1000 pips, which is a drop of more than 6 percent. The psychologically level of 1.50 was easily broken and now, the currency pair is eyeing 1.45.
The Euro continues to get killed with the currency falling to a fresh 5 month low against the US dollar today. Although the primary catalyst has been dollar strength, growing problems in the Eurozone has intensified the selling pressure. Good news is coming out of the US more often than in the past while bad news continues to pour out of the Eurozone. Therefore it is no surprise that the strong Euro is finally catching up to the region’s economy. The Eurozone could not have remained immune to the US slowdown for much longer.
Five Forces Driving the Euro Down
With Core Inflation at 2.5%, Inflation Isn’t a Worry
August 14, 2008
Mark J. Perry submits:
According to Brian Wesbury and Bob Stein, "Inflation is the leading menace to the US economy."
Although I usually agree them, I don’t see inflation as much of a menace right now. The core CPI inflation on an annual basis was 2.5% in July, barely above the 10-year average of 2.21%, below the levels close to 3% between mid-2006 to early 2007, and way below the 4.58% average since 1970 (see graph above).
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