T. Boone Pickens Holdings Down Nearly 20% This Quarter
August 15, 2008
Hickey and Walters (Bespoke) submit:
The holdings in T. Boone Pickens’ hedge fund at the end of Q2 aren’t doing so well this quarter. Based on the 13-F released by BP Capital yesterday, the fund’s holdings are collectively down 19.7% since the start of July. (This doesn’t reflect the fund’s cash position, short positions, or changes in the holdings since the end of the 2nd quarter.) As shown, 26 out of 27 positions are down this quarter, with SandRidge Energy (SD), BPZ Resources (BZP), Foster Wheeler (FWLT) and Denbury Resources (DNR) down the most. The one position that is up this quarter is Clean Energy Fuels (CLNE), which is also the fund’s smallest position. Interestingly, the fund added to all but two positions from Q1 to Q2, and took new positions in Chesapeake Energy (CHK), Devon Energy (DVN), Tenaris (TS), EOG Resources (EOG) and BZP.
Mr. Pickens has been front and center in the news recently for his Pickens Plan to end the United States’ dependency on foreign oil by developing alternative fuel sources. Based on the performance of Pickens’ holdings this quarter, BP Capital investors might want him to just be quiet.
T. Boone Pickens Holdings Down Nearly 20% This Quarter
Liquidity Key To Picking Homebuilder Stocks - Citi
August 15, 2008
FP Trading Desk submits:
New and existing home prices in the United States will likely deteriorate by up to 15% over the coming months, says Citi Investment Research analyst Josh Levin, and near-term liquidity will continue to drive valuations of homebuilder stocks.
The result, Mr. Levin said in a note to clients, is that identifying stocks for which the market has mispriced near-term liquidity “should be the key” for anyone wanting to buy into the sector. Investors should reward those who generate and stockpile cash and avoid those that jeopardize liquidity by, for example, spending too much on land.
Liquidity Key To Picking Homebuilder Stocks - Citi
Checking In on Warren Buffett and George Soros
August 15, 2008
Market Beating Stocks submits:
The 13F filings from various funds are flying in now, and I’ve been pretty busy sorting through them all. There are certain funds I like to track in depth (analyzing portfolio movements line by line), and others that I just check for major portfolio moves made in the last quarter, to keep tabs on them. Today, I want to touch on the filings by legendary investors Warren Buffett and George Soros. Let’s take a quick glance to see what major moves they made in their portfolios.
Warren Buffett
With his most recent 13F filing, Buffett details his portfolio holdings as of June 30th, 2008. In it, we can see that he started a new stake in NRG Energy (NRG) to the tune of 3,238,100 shares. Buffett was even more active in the energy sector than usual, selling all of his Conoco Phillips (COP) position. He was also once again active in the rails, increasing his position in Union Pacific (UNP) by 100% (doubling down). Also, Buffett increased his position in Ingersoll Rand (IR) in a massive way, increasing his position by 500%. Additionally, he maintained his usual large stakes in companies like Wells Fargo (WFC), American Express (AXP), Procter & Gamble (PG), and Kraft (KFT). You can view Berkshire Hathaway’s full 13F as filed with the SEC here.
Checking In on Warren Buffett and George Soros
Market Predictions: ‘Crazy’ About the Dollar
August 15, 2008
Investment U submits:
By Louis Basenese
I’m no stranger to controversial stock market predictions. In fact, a few weeks ago I angered an entire room of investors at the Agora Financial Symposium with my latest trio of "crazy" recommendations…
Market Predictions: ‘Crazy’ About the Dollar
Inflation or Deflation?
August 15, 2008
Steve Waldman submits:
In the more eschatological corners of the financial blogosphere, a debate has raged for centuries: Inflation or deflation? I’m going with the former.
I recommend Michael Shedlock as a thoughtful and passionate proponent of the deflationary view. (See e.g. here and here, but he’s been making the case for years and it’s worth searching the archives.) Also, Karl Denninger recently offered a nice deflationary tract.
15 Aug 2008 16:00:00 - Top 5 Stocks up on Unusual Volume
August 15, 2008
| Intraday Unusual Volume - Top 5 Up |
| Symbol | Volume % Change |
Price % Change |
News | |
| SPWR | 285% |  92.52% |
news | |
| RICK | 260% | 13.69% |
news | |
| ADSK | 251% | 38.37% |
news | |
| VISN | 237% | 19.38% |
news | |
| OPLK | 214% | 13.96% |
news | |
|
||||
15 Aug 2008 16:00:00 - Top 5 Stocks up on Unusual Volume
Friday Options Update: CIT, LEH, CMC, MAS, JCG, TXN, CY, MSFT
August 15, 2008
Rebecca Engmann Darst contributed to this report.
CIT Group (CIT) – A sizable 1-by-2 call spread, possibly put on by a well-capitalized individual or an institution, caught our attentions today as it would seem to imply a slow-but-sure road to recovery for CIT Group, the provider of commercial and real estate financing. Shares in CIT Group are down 60.9% for the year to date, but have recovered 51% of their value from July 15 lows – outpacing the gains seen in other S&P financials, a group that CIT Group has otherwise lagged mercilessly behind for much of this year. Shares have reversed early losses and now read 1.7% higher at $9.36. The long 1-by-2 call spread activity in the January ’09 contract involved a trader buying 1 $10 strike call for $2.10 and selling two 15-strike calls for 70 cents, resulting in a net debit of 70 cents per trade. Essentially the trader is looking for continued upside past the $10.70 level in the first of the year, but is confident that the share price won’t breach $15 – half the position at this strike in a 1-by-2 call spread is uncovered short, leaving the trader vulnerable to exercise (and unlimited losses) in the event of a share price rally. The volume here appears to have involved about 19,000 lots at the lower strike and about 38,000 lots at the upper strike, making the size of the trade worthy of note in its own respect – the volume here represented 16 times the normal level of activity seen in CIT Group shares.
Friday Options Update: CIT, LEH, CMC, MAS, JCG, TXN, CY, MSFT
The Value of Long-Term Investing: A $370K Chart
August 15, 2008
Dobromir Stoyanov submits:
In my previous article last week I tried to illustrate the point that one should start investing as soon as possible. This time I will try to prove that long-term investing and dividend reinvestment are important tools that would enable the shrewd dividend investor through good and bad times.
I recently stumbled upon a long-term chart of the Dow Jones industrial’s average which covers the period from 1920 to 2005. I have seen the long term chart of this stock market index multiple times before. The index rose from 107.23, which was the closing price for 1919 to over 11,000 by early August 2008. In a previous article I cited a research paper that showed that if dividend reinvestment was taken into consideration into the DJ index, its price would not stand at 11,000 but it would be several times over that.
Using just the value line annual dividends data for the 1920-2005 periods, as well as the final closing values for each year for the same period from DJ indexes, I was able to perform the simple test of dividend reinvestment assuming a $107.23 initial investment on 12/31/1919 into a hypothetical index fund that tracks Dow Jones Industrials Average.
The Value of Long-Term Investing: A $370K Chart
Meruelo Maddux Properties, Inc. Q2 2008 Earnings Call Transcript
August 15, 2008
Meruelo Maddux Properties, Inc. (MMPI)
Q2 2008 Earnings Call Transcript
Meruelo Maddux Properties, Inc. Q2 2008 Earnings Call Transcript
Today’s CMBX Credit Problem
August 15, 2008
John Jansen submits:
There is a credit problem in CMBX which has led to a significant widening of spreads in that sector.Spreads are wider by 6 basis points to 8 basis points in AAA space and about 35 basis points wider in AA space.It gets very ugly in A and BBB space as that stuff is out 75 basis points.
The loan in question is a $225 million dollar loan on which the borrower walked away with a $44.6 million cash take out.
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