41 Stocks Returning 10% or More Last Week
August 17, 2008
Trader Mark submits:
This week’s list of top performers has high exposure to retail and solar; areas we have been moving into the past few weeks with greater weightings…. but more into solar than retail for the fund. This list continues to show us that "beaten down" merchandise from the past year is the market’s favorite right now. At the very bottom of the entry I also posted the top returners in the $1B to $1.75B range of market capitalization since we are increasingly buying some smaller fare.
Criteria
41 Stocks Returning 10% or More Last Week
August Is the Cruelest Month for Shorts
August 17, 2008
Dan Knight submits:
By Dan Knight
The month of August is quickly becoming a month of misery for hedge funds and short sellers in particular. Like last year, when the credit crisis seemed to initially explode and cause many large hedge funds, particularly quant-based ones that employ long/short strategies, to suffer massive losses, this year’s August is doing the same.
August Is the Cruelest Month for Shorts
Forex Update: The Week Behind, the Week Ahead
August 17, 2008
Grace Cheng submits:
Traders and economists often have differing views about currency movements. Most traders, like myself, go with the flow of the market, hitching onto the present, participating in the seemingly illogical game of speculation, and not wasting time questioning over whether a particular currency should actually be going higher or lower against another currency. Some economists and non-traders, on the other hand, get angry when a currency keeps going against its assumed “logical” direction and argue that traders are so wrong in believing otherwise. This difference in thinking has stood out prominently over the past few weeks, especially since the US dollar has been rallying so strongly against most other major currencies.o
The past week marked another milestone in forex trading: The US dollar rose to a 6-month high against both the Euro and Swiss franc; it rose to a 7.5-month high versus the Japanese yen, and advanced to a near 2-year high against the British pound.
Forex Update: The Week Behind, the Week Ahead
U.S. Lending Rates Increase
August 17, 2008
The LFB submits:
The current HSH Associates average of over 2,000 U.S. mortgage lenders shows the 30 year mortgage rate currently at 6.95%, up from 6.25% in January, an increase of over ten percent this year, for those capable of qualifying. The spread between the Fed’s overnight rate of 2% and the Mortgage rate of 6.95% is now 495 basis points, a signal that an increase in Fed rates will be hard on the housing market with the average mortgage rate then above 7%.
Mortgage inflation may become the new buzz word because of the difference in what can be earned, compared to what is charged by the local banks. In July of last year the Fed’s overnight lending rate stood at 5.25%, with the HSH 30 year mortgage rate at 6.85% at that time. Since then Fed rates have dropped 325 basis points whilst at the same time mortgage rates have actually increased 10 basis points.
The Economic Week Ahead: Inflation, Growth, Confidence and Retail Numbers
August 17, 2008
The LFB submits:
This week starts with a dollar in unique shape, something that the greenback has been searching for quite a while. The dollar has strengthened for 5 weeks against a wide range of currencies; the dollar index cannot find any resistance tough enough to stop the gains at the moment, and Chicago based Commitment of Traders reports now show net long dollar positions.
Euro-Zone: The currency market will have another hard test of valuations as a number of releases gauging the investor and consumer sentiment from the euro-zone hit the wires. Lately, the analysts have failed to gauge the release numbers and sentiment. One of the most important this week, the Zew economic sentiment for the Euro-zone, is expected to come at -65.0, dropping 90 points from a year earlier. The Purchase Managers Index [PMI] releases, showing the latest developments in the manufacturing and service sectors, will be out this week as well, with activity levels in the Euro-area expected to show continued contraction. The U.S. PMI reads however show activity is starting to pick up, after its dip into the contraction zone. The strength the euro had for some time, together with high interest rates had a negative effect on the Euro-zone business climate and this is starting to be reflected now in the Zew and PMI releases.
The Economic Week Ahead: Inflation, Growth, Confidence and Retail Numbers
Have We Experienced a Bear Market Bottom?
August 17, 2008
John Pantic submits:
A number of market commentators have been commenting on reaching a bottom in the financial markets on July 15 2008. The Street’s Jim Cramer said “I am finding disbelief that the July 15 selloff marked the bottom. Fifty percent of the people are bears, 30 percent bulls. Again, a bottom is not a new bull market. A bottom is what we won’t take out. I think we won’t take out the July 15 low.”
Although the easiest way to pick a bear market bottom is with hindsight, I thought I would add to the debate by reviewing some empirical data. On 15 July, we saw a top in crude oil which has fallen 21.7 percent, an 18 percent drop in gold, 6.5 percent rise in the US dollar index, a rise of 6.8 percent in the Dow Jones Industrial Average and 7.7 percent jump in the S&P 500 (August 13 close).
Have We Experienced a Bear Market Bottom?
Sentiment Review: Bullishness Rising
August 17, 2008
Frederic Ruffy submits:
The CBOE Volatility Index [.VIX] fell 0.76 to 19.58 Friday and closed below 20 for the first time since June 5. The market’s "fear gauge" is now well below its mid-July highs above 30 percent. The decline in the VIX reflects the recent trend of falling risk perceptions and diminishing bearishness seen in the US equity market during the past month or so.
Other indicators confirm that bearishness is easing. Monday, the Nasdaq OMX Group (NDAQ) reported that short interest on the NASDAQ fell to10.76 billion shares in 3,164 Nasdaq securities at the end of July 31, which compares to 11.18 billion shares in 3,143 securities at the end of July 15.
Sentiment Review: Bullishness Rising
The Bedrock Case for the Return of the Gold Bull
August 17, 2008
Earlier this week we talked about why gold got crushed.
In response to that piece, some of you felt the Russia-Georgia conflict was more of a “post-mortem” than a true explanation. Taipan Daily reader Luis from Mexico writes, “I would appreciate a more technical view of gold’s valuation, since it has some predictive power.”
The Bedrock Case for the Return of the Gold Bull
Questioning the Current Outlook for Gold, the Dollar and U.S. Markets
August 17, 2008
David Ferreira submits:
Gold has been slam-dunked, oil is on its way down, the USD is rebounding and the rally in commodities is over - So what happened?
Questioning the Current Outlook for Gold, the Dollar and U.S. Markets
Fantasy Football Season is Upon Us, Can you take on the Big Wave Trading crew?
August 17, 2008
Here are the details:
Fantasy Football 2008
League ID: 418319
password: stocks
This is a great way to have a little friendly competition amongst Big Wave Traders. There are only 12 slots so if you are interested please sign up quickly!!! Plus with a relatively uninspiring Bear Market what better way to get your mind of stocks!!!
Best of luck, you’ll need it.
Market Speculator
Fantasy Football Season is Upon Us, Can you take on the Big Wave Trading crew?
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