GDP Trends Signal Q2 Growth
August 19, 2008
Ron Haruni submits:
Economic growth can be analyzed from several vantage points, such as the growth rates of the various GDP components or their direct contributions to growth. In this short piece we intend to focus primarily at component contributions to real GDP for the second quarter (Q2), fiscal ‘08.
This is partly because the trends (despite each measure exhibiting advantages, and certain weaknesses as well) more importantly provide significant clues about the outlook for Q2/GDP ‘08, which we think will post growth of about 2% annual rate.
A New Video Is Up For Gold And Platinum Members
August 19, 2008
This video is a quick overview of how I scan for my charts and the way that I scan for them. A lot of people ask me what I scan for first and what I look for. Well since there are no new longs or shorts, and the scans numbers were all very small (nothing over 20), it makes it a perfect night to show you how I go through each section and what order I take each section on. This should help those that are clueless on how I scan for my stocks. This will definitely help. If you are a gold or platinum subscriber just go to the Joshua Live! area and you will be taken directly to the most recent post.
A New Video Is Up For Gold And Platinum Members
Global vs. Domestic Sector Performance
August 19, 2008
Hickey and Walters (Bespoke) submit:
Global vs Domestic Sector Performance
ln the table at right, we highlight the year-to-date performance of the ten MSCI US and World Ex US sectors. This highlights the difference between sector performance in the US and everywhere else in the World. As shown, all sectors except for Financials have done better in the US than outside of the US this year, with both consumer sectors outperforming by the widest margin. Consumer sectors are largely driven by domestic economics, so it says something about where the US stands versus other countries. The Consumer Staples sector in the US is down just 1.37% year to date, while outside of the US, the sector is down 15.84%. Aside from the consumer sectors, Industrials, Materials and Technology have also shown strong outperformance in the US. Energy, Health Care and Utilities are about even.
Global vs. Domestic Sector Performance
Fed’s Lacker and Inflation: Reality Check
August 19, 2008
Hickey and Walters (Bespoke) submit:
In an interview today with Bloomberg TV, Richmond Fed President and inflation hawk Jeffrey Lacker made several comments regarding inflation. In the interview, he said that he regards core inflation of 2.5% as a ‘little high’, and would prefer a rate of 1.5%. Looking at core inflation over the last 50 years, using the core CPI shows that readings at or below Lacker’s preferred rate have been rare. Over the last 50 years, over 90% of all monthly core CPI readings have been above 1.5%. During that same period, the average core inflation reading has been 4.1%, which is nearly three times Lacker’s preferred reading. While we don’t want to minimize the very real threat of high inflation, we would note that Lacker’s preferred rate of inflation is as realistic as a $10 fill up at the gas station.
Fed’s Lacker and Inflation: Reality Check
Treasury Yields Test Key Support
August 19, 2008
Hickey and Walters (Bespoke) submit:
Falling Treasury yields indicate that investors are worried about the economy and/or problems in the credit markets. As investors flock to "safe" paper, yields fall. As shown in the chart below, the yield on the 10-Year Treasury Note has fallen in recent days and is currently resting on key support levels marked by its mid-July lows. Prior to the rally in yields from mid-March to mid-June of this year, the yield on the 10-Year was in a protracted downtrend. If the support that the yield is resting on now is broken, a new downtrend will be in place.
Treasury Yields Test Key Support
Why a ‘Good’ PPI Isn’t Such Good News
August 19, 2008
Ron Haruni submits:
The U.S. Labor Department reported on Tuesday that the PPI Index for finished goods, an inflationary indicator which evaluates wholesale price levels in the economy, advanced 1.2% in July versus a consensus expected of 0.6%. This increase followed a 1.8% jump in June and a 1.4% rise in May.
Among prices for finished goods, the index for energy goods rose 3.1 percent in July following a 6.0% jump in June. The Producer Price Index for Intermediate goods advanced 2.7 percent in July and are up at a 36.0% annual rate in the past three months.
Why a ‘Good’ PPI Isn’t Such Good News
M3 Contraction: The Future Is Now
August 19, 2008
Michael Shedlock submits:
The Telegraph is reporting Sharp US money supply contraction points to Wall Street crunch ahead.
The US money supply has experienced the sharpest contraction in modern history, heightening the risk of a Wall Street crunch and a severe economic slowdown in coming months.
M3 Contraction: The Future Is Now
Wage Inflation Emerging in Some Major Economies
August 19, 2008
Research Recap submits:
Indications that inflationary pressures are building in the industrial sector emerge in the OECD’s latest quarterly unit labor cost data.
An increase in unit labor costs indicates that growth in average employee compensation exceeds growth in labor productivity, creating pressure on producer prices.
Wage Inflation Emerging in Some Major Economies
Martin Wolf on Capitalism
August 19, 2008
Felix Salmon submits:
Give Bill Gates, Mike Kinsley, and Conor Clark credit: if their Creative Capitalism project achieves nothing else, it has certainly brought into being one of the most interesting, diverse, and provocative group blogs on the internet. And Martin Wolf’s tour de force this week, hidden under the bland title "Profit-maximization as the sole goal of a corporation", is one of the best blog entries I think I’ve ever read.
There’s nothing very new here. But in the space of barely more than 1,000 words, Wolf manages to digest and clarify an astonishingly broad range of thought about what capitalism is, can be, and should be, under different systems around the world. I wouldn’t dare try to summarize Wolf’s essay any futher, so just go and read the whole thing. But here are some excerpts, to give you a taste:
19 Aug 2008 16:00:00 - Top 5 Stocks up on Unusual Volume
August 19, 2008
| Intraday Unusual Volume - Top 5 Up |
| Symbol | Volume % Change |
Price % Change |
News | |
| CSUN | 125% |  10.04% |
news | |
| FSYS | 121% | 59.59% |
news | |
| ENG | 101% | 16.59% |
news | |
| NTES | 42% | 25.43% |
news | |
| LHCG | 38% | 29.26% |
news | |
|
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