Grading Paulson and Bernanke
August 22, 2008
Prieur du Plessis submits:
Over the past few days I conducted a snap poll on the performance of Messrs Bernanke and Paulson over the past year, i.e. the first year of the credit crisis. The poll was devised in order broadly to gauge (on a scale of 1 to 10) readers’ sentiments regarding the gentlemen’s actions during testing times.
In total about 400 people participated in the poll and responded as follows:
The Economy: Walking on the Supply Side
August 22, 2008
John M. Mason submits:
This is the third of three posts in which I aim to present the outline of my vision of where the economy is going into the fall. The first, “The Candidates and Economic Leadership” (August 18, 2008) framed the political environment, and the second,” The Most Important Price in the Economy” (August 20. 2008) presented my view of where the focus needs to be centered for economic policy making. This third post will be more specific as it tries to define the dilemma the policy makers are facing within the current environment.
In my view the implicit model of aggregate economic activity that we default to is one in which the aggregate supply of goods and services is assumed to be fixed or constant. That is, the aggregate supply curve is perfectly inelastic with respect to the aggregate price level. (This, of course, is a very simple picture and does not take into account the potential growth of the economy. Both of these points can be addressed. I am just trying to KISS the analysis for reasons of space and exposition.)
The Economy: Walking on the Supply Side
22 Aug 2008 16:00:00 - Top 5 Stocks up on Unusual Volume
August 22, 2008
| Intraday Unusual Volume - Top 5 Up |
| Symbol | Volume % Change |
Price % Change |
News | |
| CSUN | 819% |  11.72% |
news | |
| SKIL | 514% | 10.40% |
news | |
| BCSI | 371% | 19% |
news | |
| ISCA | 194% | 37.85% |
news | |
| KNSY | 192% | 36.48% |
news | |
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22 Aug 2008 16:00:00 - Top 5 Stocks up on Unusual Volume
Pound Hits Two-Year Low vs. Dollar: U.K. Economy Stagnant
August 22, 2008
Grace Cheng submits:
The worse performer of the day has been the British pound, which fell more than 250 pips against the US dollar from a high of 1.8770 towards 1.8500, more than erasing Thursday’s gain. Friday’s release of UK GDP was worse than expected, coming out at 0%, compared with a previous estimate for growth of 0.2%, worse than the +0.1% growth expected. When the market saw that the UK economy registered no growth in the second quarter, and that the economy grew only 1.4% from a year earlier - the smallest expansion since 1992 - short sellers took the chance to short the Pound.
Weakness was seen in virtually every sector, ranging from business investments, which saw a whopping 5.3% drop (the most in 23 years) to household spending which posted the first decline since 2005.
Pound Hits Two-Year Low vs. Dollar: U.K. Economy Stagnant
Nordson Corporation F3Q08 (Qtr End 07/31/08) Earnings Call Transcript
August 22, 2008
Nordson Corporation (NDSN)
F3Q08 Earnings Call
Nordson Corporation F3Q08 (Qtr End 07/31/08) Earnings Call Transcript
Peak Theory, Applied To Inflation
August 22, 2008
James Picerno submits:
We’ve been chatting up the inflation story lately, and for good reason: inflation is rising. But that’s yesterday’s news. Thus the relevant question: Will it continue to rise?
No one really knows, although everyone has a guess, and those guesses are all over the map, as yesterday’s post reminds. On one side are those who expect inflation to remain relatively high, if not rise further. A superficial reading of recent history supports this view, as per the upward momentum in inflation measures of late.
Peak Theory, Applied To Inflation
Why are Analysts’ Forecasts Getting Worse? Reg FD.
August 22, 2008
Barry Ritholtz submits:
>
"At the start of the year, profits at banks, brokers and insurance companies were projected to rise 22 percent in 2008, according to the average estimate of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. They’re now expected to decline 48 percent." -Bloomberg’s Chart of Day
Why are Analysts’ Forecasts Getting Worse? Reg FD.
Friday Options Update: LEH, SCHW, AKAM, KG, APO, TGT, ORCL, KO
August 22, 2008
Rebecca Engmann Darst contributed to this report.
Lehman Brothers (LEH) – Shares in Lehman Brothers bounded sharply out of the gate with a 10% gain to $15.09 on speculation that the firm might be bought by Korea Development Bank. The move in Lehman comes a day after respected analyst Richard Bove floated the notion of Lehman’s vulnerability to a hostile takeover bid, and amid generally bullish action in financials today on back of interest rate-dovish and largely reactive, rather than proactive, rhetoric from Fed chairman Ben Bernanke speaking in Jackson Hole. Response from option traders has been interesting, not least in the October contract, where one fund a trader appears to have played against the “easy-fix” rumors by buying a long 8870-lot put spread between strikes 2.50 and 5.00. This trade was entered for a 25-cent debit, creating an initial break even of $4.75 – requiring an almost disastrous $10 drop. The trader stands to gain as much as $2.25 – 9 times the money at risk – if Lehman shares make a cataclysmic drop, but don’t break below the $2.50 level. In another October play, traders may have sold 27-strike calls at 22 cents apiece in order to fund a long collar between strikes 12.50 and 20 – a protective play on an underlying stock position that would otherwise cost 33 cents to put on.
Friday Options Update: LEH, SCHW, AKAM, KG, APO, TGT, ORCL, KO
Holly Corp. (HOC) is a BUY
August 22, 2008
Target: 63.00 Holly Corporation and its subsidiaries operate as a petroleum refiner in the United States. It involves in the purchase and refining of crude oil; and wholesale and marketing of refined products, such as gasoline, diesel fuel, and jet fuel in Texas, New Mexico, Arizona, Utah, Wyoming, Montana, Idaho, Washington, and northern Mexico. The company also manufactures and markets asphalt products from various terminals in Arizona and New Mexico. In addition, it transports liquid petroleum gas (LPG) to LPG wholesalers and LPG retailers; offers gasoline to refiners, convenience store chains, independent marketers, and retailers; and provides diesel fuel to other refiners, truck stop chains, wholesalers, and railroads. As of December 31, 2007, the company owned and operated two refineries consisting of a petroleum refinery in Artesia, New Mexico and a refinery in Woods Cross, Utah; and owned approximately 900 miles of crude oil pipelines located principally in west Texas and New Mexico. It also owned a 45% interest in Holly Energy Partners, L.P., which has logistics assets, including approximately 1,700 miles of petroleum product pipelines located in Texas, New Mexico, and Oklahoma; 10 refined product terminals; 2 refinery truck rack facilities; and a refined products tank farm facility. The company was founded in 1947 and is based in Dallas, Texas.
22 Aug 2008 11:40:00 - Top 5 Stocks up on Unusual Volume
August 22, 2008
| Intraday Unusual Volume - Top 5 Up |
| Symbol | Volume % Change |
Price % Change |
News | |
| CSUN | 841% |  11% |
news | |
| BCSI | 577% | 18.2304% |
news | |
| SKIL | 447% | 10.55% |
news | |
| ISCA | 114% | 37.62% |
news | |
| LMDIA | 76% | 27.40% |
news | |
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