Home Properties, Inc. Q2 2008 Earnings Call Transcript
August 24, 2008
Home Properties, Inc. (HME)
Q2 2008 Earnings Call
Home Properties, Inc. Q2 2008 Earnings Call Transcript
Nordson’s Rally Is Over, For Now - Barron’s
August 24, 2008
Last October, Barron’s was plugging Nordson (NDSN), the maker of precision dispensing systems for automotive coatings and sealants. That’s because then Nordson’s enterprise value was at a historical low; sales were growing by double digits and earnings growth was helped by foreign market exposure and a weak dollar.
Now Nordson faces a fallout from Friday’s FQ3 earnings miss announcement. The company blamed a weak U.S. economy and softness in other markets they serve like semi-conductors and high tech. Even a recovering dollar is hurting their bottom line.
Nordson’s Rally Is Over, For Now - Barron’s
What the Homebuilders Are Telling Us
August 24, 2008
Timothy Charles submits:
It’s no secret that the housing market is weak. Sales are coming but at greatly reduced prices. Builders continue to put up the "million dollar castles" in cities nearby which has confused me. Financing is tough these days though available at much higher rates. Crude prices are lower but the price of unleaded has not completely unraveled… at least not yet. The unemployment rate has been moving higher and job creation is basically nil with my own models showing that job creation at its weakest since June of 2003. Lastly, the realtor’s of today look like the stock brokers of the bubble era - they went along for the ride and now don’t know what to do when the "ride" blows out a tire. So with all of these negatives in play, why are we seeing the homebuilders rally?
Now this is no ordinary rally. There have been squeezes in the past but those squeezes were isolated and not accompanied by other securities - in this current case, the greenback. The bears have been out on the dollar but more so of late on the housing market. The reasoning behind such has merit but the homebuilders have continued to climb. One of my trader friends, who has been doing this for 30 years, often says that at market lows, the next leaders are born. We saw that in 2002 when the basic materials were the first off the lows. We saw that in the late 90s with the tech’s accelerating to the upside. Could 2008’s low candidates, the financials and the homebuilders in this case, be the next leadership? Could they be telling us that perhaps credit conditions are now in place for housing to stop falling?
What the Homebuilders Are Telling Us
Accumulation Apparent (SPX, rated HOLD)
August 24, 2008
I have faced some very real personal difficulties over the past week. These have somewhat hobbled my ability to manage the index and blog as well as I would like. Still, even with these problems, I am managing to handily beat the S&P500 since the index’s inception.
Over the coming months I will undoubtedly face even more obstacles. My goal with the Glam 5 is to widely disseminate truths I have learned in my ten years of stock trading, and beat the S&P and NAZ . I feel my biggest advantage is the ability to move to cash in a flash, if the general market suddenly heads south.
The action of leading glamour names over the past week is viewed as a very bullish position. My long, new list of hyper growth names has finally appeared. Action in names like FSYS and IIVI are showing signs of blatant institutional accumulation. Though not yet included in the index, RIMM is building the right side of a potential base.
Accumulation Apparent (SPX, rated HOLD)
MEMSIC Inc. (MEMS, rated BUY)
August 24, 2008
MEMSIC, Inc. provides semiconductor sensor and system solutions based on integrated micro electro-mechanical systems (MEMS) technology and mixed signal circuit design. The company has integrated its MEMS technology-based inertial sensor, known as an accelerometer, with mixed signal processing circuitry onto a single chip using a standard complementary metal-oxide-semiconductor process. Its accelerometer products are used to measure tilt, shock, vibration, and acceleration. These products have a range of applications for consumer electronics, including mobile phones and automotive, such as airbags, rollover detection, electronic stability control, and navigation systems, as well as for business, industrial, and medical applications. The company sells its products worldwide through distributors, who then resell to original equipment manufacturers (OEM) and original design manufacturers (ODM) or to OEM and ODM customers directly. MEMSIC, Inc. was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Andover, Massachusetts
| Analysts’ Recommendation: |
Buy |
| 30 Days Ago: | Buy |
|
|
|
| Analysts’ Target: | $6 |
| Analysts’ Targets | |
| Jefferies & Co. | $4 |
| Buy | |
| Tuesday, July 15, 2008 | |
| Needham & Co. | $9 |
| Buy | |
| Friday, February 29, 2008 |
Memsic Inc Market Data
| Currency | US Dollars |
| Share Price | $2.21 |
| Change Today | -$0.10 |
| 52 Week High | $10.63 |
| 52 Week Low | $2.20 |
| Volume | 49,850 |
| RiskGrade | 316 |
<!— END secondColHolder –>
Trades for 22-Aug-2008
| Time | Volume / Share Price |
| 15:54 | 600 @ $2.21 |
| 15:54 | 600 @ $2.21 |
| 15:54 | 562 @ $2.21 |
| 15:54 | 1,838 @ $2.21 |
| 15:54 | 2,050 @ $2.21 |
The Obama Plan: We Can’t Entitle Our Way Out of Paying Taxes
August 24, 2008
Diane Lim Rogers submits:
Thursday’s Wall Street Journal contained an opinion column by Glenn Hubbard, arguing that ”We Can’t Tax Our Way Out of the Entitlement Crisis.” Glenn, whom I worked closely with as his resident tax-policy antagonist at the Council of Economic Advisers for the first 100 days of the Bush Admininstration (my being a staff holdover from the Clinton Administration CEA), uses the column to criticize what seems to be Senator Obama’s tax-heavy approach to entitlement reform (or at least Social Security reform).
Glenn argues that with combined spending on Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid projected to rise by nearly 10 percentage points of GDP over the next 40 years (he cites CBO numbers for this), relying on revenues alone to keep deficits from expanding would require revenues to increase by 10% of GDP. With revenues/GDP currently around 19%, a boost of 10% of GDP would take us to 29%–which is the “simple arithmetic” Glenn refers to here:
The Obama Plan: We Can’t Entitle Our Way Out of Paying Taxes
This Market Needs More Volume
August 24, 2008
David I. Templeton submits:
A large amount of cash still remains on the sidelines that could find its way into equities. The Investment Company Institute reports a continued increase in cash in money market funds. As of August 20, 2008, cash in money market funds totaled $3.5 trillion dollars. At year end 2007 money market cash equaled $3.1 trillion dollars and this was up from $2.3 trillion at year end 2006. I will be watching trading volume as we get closer to the 4th quarter and the election.
Obama Is Bad for the Economy - Barron’s
August 24, 2008
When it comes to assessing the implications of John McCain’s and Barack Obama’s tax plans, the vast majority seem to side with Bank Credit Analyst managing editor Martin Barnes: "There are attempts to make the Obama-McCain difference big; but they are not that big, really."
Barron’s Jim McTague begs to differ. "The vast majority… is wrong."
Obama Is Bad for the Economy - Barron’s
Lax Underwriting , Foreclosures, and Credit Crunch Stimulate Misery Industries
August 24, 2008
Jimmy Lathrop submits:
Let me reintroduce myself. I’m a dirt lawyer. I don’t work on Wall Street. I work in the outer boroughs of New York City. I deal with the dirt and the dead - real estate, criminal law, trusts and estates. I’ve worked at a Broker Dealer and I prefer the courtroom to the glare of the Bloomberg terminal. However, Warren Buffet is fond of saying that you should invest in what you are familiar with. Let me introduce you to my unique ground level perspective of our "positive GDP growth".
I worked as a bank attorney for mortgage refinances and advised purchasers and sellers of real estate in New York City during the "Golden Age" of the housing boom. Once home prices started to level off and the subprime lenders began collapsing, the refinances and sales dried up, but coincidentally, my landlord/tenant practice began to pick up. You see, many first-time homebuyers were given the "Big Kiyosaki" pitch, where owning multifamily properties would create "cash flow" and turn everyone into "Rich Dads".
Lax Underwriting , Foreclosures, and Credit Crunch Stimulate Misery Industries
Big Ben’s Jackson Hole, Wyoming Pep Rally
August 24, 2008
Brian A. Davis submits:
I can remember back to high school. The big homecoming football game was always greeted with a pep rally. The band played, cheerleaders cheered, and the football team got pumped for the big game. This helped create a euphoric environment for a team that had a losing record. But at the pep rally, records don’t matter. The only game that counted was the one they were going to play that night!
This anecdote really reminds me of the shenanigans at Jackson Hole, WY. Make no doubt, Big Ben is giving his team a pep talk on keeping this economy floating. The team’s record is not good. But, the Fed and Treasury have manipulated this game to where it would make the most crooked bookies in the underworld envious.
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