Credit Crisis Reality TV: Upcoming Hearings
October 4, 2008
Paul Kedrosky submits:
The next few weeks of C-Span will be like a new credit crisis reality TV show. Just look at all the upcoming hearings that will likely be broadcast:
October 8, 2008: Causes and Effects of the Lehman Brothers (LEH) Bankruptcy
House, Committee on Oversight and Goverment Reform (Waxman)
Credit Crisis Reality TV: Upcoming Hearings
AAPL - now is the time to pull the trigger (AAPL, rated BUY)
October 4, 2008
Fundamentally Apple is a strong company. If you are Long on apple, now is the time to buy. I’m not saying that the market has bottomed out or anything, or that apple wont go any lower in the next year or so. But the company has a ton of cash and will eventually come back up. 97.00 a share is amazing for this company, and now would be a good time to buy some in my opinion. I would not go and spend all of your money on apple right now. I would invest say 50% of what you want to put in apple now and then buy every few days/weeks until the bottom is found. Right now Apple prices are a steal. Just my humble opinion.
AAPL - now is the time to pull the trigger (AAPL, rated BUY)
As mentioned in a comment - weak financials (SWHC, rated BUY)
October 4, 2008
I just think they have a shot to sell to govt as govt today buy Colt and Savage but almost nothing from SWHC. New president - no matter which one - would lead to a better or at least a tighter grip on procurement for DoD. I was wong before and SWHC went down but I believe they can make it higher from this level. They downsized their hunting gun division - not the DoD stuff.
As mentioned in a comment - weak financials (SWHC, rated BUY)
iShares Trust iShares MSCI ACWI Index Fund (ACWI) is a BUY
October 4, 2008
The investment seeks investment results that correspond generally to the priceand yield performance, before fees and expenses, of the MSCI All Country World index. The fund will invest at least 90% of its assets in securities of the underlying index and in depositary receipts based on securities of the underlying index. It is nondiversified.
iShares Trust iShares MSCI ACWI Index Fund (ACWI) is a BUY
Strongest bank in the world, for now (WFC, rated BUY)
October 4, 2008
Wachovia was once a > $100bn company. Wells is currently over $100bn. If they can survive the downturn, out the other side is a behemoth. Wachovia has some beautiful bank branches, and very attractive deposits. This is much better than the CitiGroup acq’n, for frightened Wachovia depositors. WAMU depositors are likely to move to Wells anyway, so Wachovia is a much better geographic expansion for them.
Strongest bank in the world, for now (WFC, rated BUY)
GOOG $429 to $709 Revised Target Price Range by Relative Industry Valuation (GOOG, rated BUY)
October 4, 2008
GOOG is undervalued substantially by looking at it valuation relative to its Industry averages.
* GOOG has a Projected P/E of 16.39
* GOOG’s Industry (Internet Information Providers ) has an average Projected P/E of 18.04
* Implies a Projected Stock Price of $429.89
* GOOG has a projected earnings growth rate of 23.08%
* GOOG has a PEG of 0.71
* GOOG’s Industry (Internet Information Providers ) has an average Projected PEG of 1.29
* Implies a Projected Stock Price of $709.48
Source of the analysis and calculations:
http://www.freestockvalueranker.com/?method=peg_pe&symbol…
(site has been fixed…no more downtimes like before…new server, I hear…hopefully no more downtimes in the future)
Are there other reasons why GOOG should be so undervalued? Please keep in mind that yes, the overall economic situation is weak.
However, these are valuations RELATIVE to the Industry it is in. And, I know it is an arguable point, but GOOG is the de facto Industry leader.
Analysis date: Oct 3, 2008, 6 AM
GOOG $429 to $709 Revised Target Price Range by Relative Industry Valuation (GOOG, rated BUY)
FCX (FCX, rated BUY)
October 4, 2008
Protests and strike hit mining sector in Peru
Workers at Freeport-McMoRan’s FCX.N: Cerro Verde copper mine, the third largest in Peru, went out on strike for higher wages.
The disputes, which come as Peru’s Congress is debating revisions to the county’s mining tax code, are the latest in a long series of protests.
Peru’s economy grew some 9 percent last year, helped by high prices for minerals exports. But workers say they are not benefiting from the country’s 7-year economic boom and are tired of waiting.
"We demand mining taxes are redistributed in a fair way. We cannot allow this aid to have the hint of politics," Luis Torres, the mayor of the city of Tacna, told Reuters by telephone.
Imminent Rate Cut? - Cramer’s Stop Trading! (10/3/08)
October 4, 2008
Recap of Jim Cramer’s comments on Stop Trading! Friday October 3.
Predicting a Fed Rate Cut - Coca-Cola (KO), McDonald’s (MCD) and Schering-Plough (SGP)
Imminent Rate Cut? - Cramer’s Stop Trading! (10/3/08)
Bailout 1.1 Passed. Will We Have to Go Back to the Well for v2.0?
October 4, 2008
Cam Hui submits:
So the bailout bill finally passed. No doubt all those amendments helped convince Congress to give the nod to the legislation. While others get all excited over such proposal like the one to suspend mark to market accounting, my favorite amendment is:
SEC. 503. EXEMPTION FROM EXCISE TAX FOR CERTAIN WOODEN ARROWS DESIGNED FOR USE BY CHILDREN.
Bailout 1.1 Passed. Will We Have to Go Back to the Well for v2.0?
Jobs Given, Jobs Taken Away
October 4, 2008
Zubin Jelveh submits:
During the last expansion between 2001 and 2007, the economy added 7.2 million jobs. This morning’s employment report — which wasn’t pretty — showed that the economy has lost jobs for nine months in a row through September for a total decline of 760,000. That means that 11 percent of the positions created during the expansion have been eliminated, or a worse outcome than in the last two recessions since the Great Moderation. Here’s how this figure compares to past cycles:
(Note: I combined the 1980 and 1981 recessions. The BLS doesn’t have data prior to 1939, so to calculate the jobs added during the 1938-1945 expansion, I took the average monthly gain for the 1939-1945 period and applied it to expansionary months in 1938.)
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