• Home
• Contact
• Privacy

Mar 18 – Before the Open (SPY, rated BUY)

Today’s Before the Open

This week’s Economic Numbers and Earnings Reports

ChartBook / ETFs

by Jason at Leavitt Brothers

Mar 18 – Before the Open (SPY, rated BUY)

Regulatory Catalyst Extreme Trades: $APPA, $APPY $ARIA, $CTIC, $SOMX (CTIC, rated SELL)

Regulatory Catalyst Extreme Trades: $APPA, $APPY $ARIA, $CTIC, $SOMX (CTIC, rated SELL)

GOLD $600 : IT’S COMING IN 2010 (GLD, rated SELL)

Gold belongs to one of the assets that fall into a bubble category, in fact almost all tradable assets can become a bubble at some point in history (ex. Nasdaq year 2000, Crude Oil at $140, Gold in the 1980 at $850, Palladium in year 2001 at $1100).
Adjusted for inflation from the year 1913 (usually CPI in US is counted from this year) Gold is already a bubble as it should cost as an asset today only $450/oz.
But I want to show you which data mining I did and why I’ve made a conclusion that Gold is already a bubble. I have used 3 significant price levels in Gold’s history in the last 100 years. The first is year 1913 to see what is inflation factor in Gold, as you can see from the table below Gold is already worth more than twice it’s face value:

The second very important price for Gold (even more important than year 1913, because the latest Gold bull was born in year 1999) is from year 1999 when Gold reached it’s another historical low of $253/oz and never since then it traded at this low price.

Now I want to present you with the third scenario so popular on business TV with celebrity traders like Jim Rogers, George Soros and Marc Faber like to show.
All of this bullish on Gold analysts and traders somehow see that Gold is headed to $2500/oz, at least this price is given as a consensus. Let’s see where they took this price from?
Being for so long in the market all this celebrity traders know that Gold is a bubble and I believe they are long Gold, so they try to find the best theoretical price where they think, they would sell their Gold bars, futures, ETF’s and stocks at this price. This is exactly what is shown in the third table, I took the last historical high price for Gold  in the previous bubble and adjusted it for inflation same as in 2 previous examples, look where I’ve arrived:

Now I have 3 different price levels to see what’s Gold worth today and first 2 normal prices show that Gold should be worth around $330-450/oz (today it’s 2 and 3 times higher than that) and the third price that this bullish traders and analyst see is $2200. Gold will be worth one of this 3 prices and now I want to take my research into other direction and show to you that the lower prices are much more likely than higher.
I will speak now about "LIMIT UP & LIMIT DOWN" in Gold prices and what effect it has on future trends in Gold price.
The daily limit in Gold is $75 and I want to check when Gold moved $75 up or down.

On January 2, 1980 – Gold moves from $560 to $635
January 15 – from $685 to $760
January 17 – from $750 to $835
January 21 – from $850 to $738

That’s it, the bubble started and finished in 1 month and never in 1980 the Gold was trading limit down, only this 4 times limit up but not a single limit down day.
What’s interesting in it, is the fact that Gold goes crazy only to the upside while when it retreats it can be volatile too but without such strong price action like to the upside.
So what we have in this current bull phase? How many limits can we recall?
The only one that I know occurred on January 10 in China when trading in Gold futures debuted there, this was a very small volume of 7 contracts traded (1000 grams/1contract) or 7kg (247oz of Gold or 2 COMEX contracts) so this was a very, very small money but still this can have a psychological meaning. http://china.org.cn/english/business/238671.htm

On COMEX in this days there was no such moves.
So this was only significant 10% move up in Gold price worth $200,000 or like 2.4 COMEX contracts traded.
Now I will check if Gold went limit down on COMEX and it almost did, also in year 2008, on Friday, October 10 Gold closed at $900 and on Monday, October  13 Gold opened at $831 or almost a limit down.
Followed by limit down in year 1980 it was a sign and Gold never reached $850 again not in 1980 and not for the next 3 decades.
Today we have this limit down in 2008 and no limits up, Gold closed this Friday around $1100 to me it means that Gold will never reach $2500 and nothing even close to it, Gold is at the historical top price that future generations will also look at it just as I compared today the high of 1980.
No limits up, one limit down in 2008. The Gold is going down, I don’t know how low it can go but a normal range in 1980 was about 40% from high to low, even if we take a high of 2009 at $1200 so Gold can easily go down to $700.

<font> http://is.gd/aIufb </font>

GOLD $600 : IT’S COMING IN 2010 (GLD, rated SELL)

Regulatory Catalyst News: $ALKS, $AMLN, $LLY, $MNKD, $SVNT (AMLN, rated BUY)

Regulatory Catalyst News: $ALKS, $AMLN, $LLY, $MNKD, $SVNT (AMLN, rated BUY)

Chesapeak Energy – Natty or Nasty? (CHK, rated SELL)

A couple of days ago, Chesapeake Energy Corporation (NYSE: CHK ) came up during a discussion with some friends of ours.

Our thoughts were directed around the company as a long-term investment and were based on various articles we had read on the web, while their comments were based on their knowledge of the gas industry.

Since they are gas traders, having spent several years on the floor of the NYMEX , we of course yielded to their expertise.

So overnight last night, we received an e-mail from them that was a follow-up to our prior conversation, and knowing less about gas trading than a hog knows about the hereafter, we simply don’t have the faintest idea what most of what was said in the e-mail actually means.

Okay, so we understand the last sentence; but the rest of it? Not a hint.

Here’s what we received.

"It almost reads as fiction, but we dug around yesterday, trying to figure out how CHK hedged 60%+ of their 2010 natty at $8+. The results are nothing short of astounding.

It seems Aubrey and company has sold naked crude calls on the curve, converted the BTU’s and labeled them natty hedges, thus gaining roughly $3.50 on the hedge values. CHK, being 93% gas and only 7% oil, is basically speculating crude futures and calling it a gas hedge.

With crude now pushing higher #’s, CHK is clinging to the rim of a toilet that just flushed, one more push up in crude and they are likely toast."

Basis
Financial information related to the Chesapeake Energy Corporation, that is contained in this report, is based on the company’s most recent Form 10-K filing for fiscal year ending December 31, 2009 as filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission on March 01, 2010.

What They Do
The company claims to be the second-largest producer of natural gas in the nation and the most active driller of new wells in the United States. According to management, the company’s goal from the outset has been to create value for investors by building one of the largest onshore natural gas resource bases in the United States.

Over the past 12 years, the company’s strategy to accomplish management’s stated goal has been to focus on developing unconventional plays onshore in the United States, where management believes the company can can generate the most attractive risk-adjusted returns.

The company also claims they have an industry-leading natural gas resource base which is integrated with an advanced drilling program coupled to an active property consolidation program, all of which is focused on small to medium-sized corporate and property acquisitions.

During the past three years the company has shifted its strategy from drilling inventory capture to drilling inventory conversion, and in doing so has de-emphasized acquisitions of proved properties while further emphasizing its drilling program and converting its backlog of drilling opportunities into proved developed producing reserves.

Short-Term Investment
The stock price is currently in a downtrend. Normally, since the stock has just started to emerge from an oversold condition, we start to pay close attention to company and industry news, looking for a favorable entry point, especially since the last trading day quote was below the 13 and 50 day moving averages.

But considering the spread of 3% between a recent close of $25.64 and first resistance of $26.51, and then considering the 4% spread between a recent close and first support of $24.60, we think that the most prudent thing to do is leave a short-term trade to those that have grown a bigger pair than we have.

Long-Term (5 Year Hold) Investment
We looked at the company financials, and realized that while we are certainly not the most dynamic group of folks that ever bathed with Irish Spring , we we are simply mystified.

What glazed our eyes over was the $11+ billion listed as special income charges, and, which was a new one on us, that selling and general administrative expenses exceeded the direct cost of sales by more than two to one. And while things like this may be quite normal, we have never seen such a phenomena before.

In addition, the company has 39 subsidiaries , three of which are partnerships. While these sorts of business structures are not uncommon in the oil and gas industry, we simply aren’t going to waste our time investigating all of these subsidiaries in order to determine if the company is investment worthy.

Final Thoughts
Our reasonable value estimate for the company is $25-$26, and should the price of the stock fall below $7, we may entertain the idea of risking a very very few dollars, admittedly more as a considered gamble than intelligent investment.

While we still have no idea what a 2010 natty is, it makes us think that perhaps investors should adjust the angle of their Charmin a bit before they attempt to smell their fingers.

Wax

To download the Wax Ink Chesapeake Energy Raw Value worksheet, please click here .

Chesapeak Energy – Natty or Nasty? (CHK, rated SELL)

WASHINGTON MUTUAL: 100% OF BUSTED BANKS COMMON EQUITY WILL BE CANCELED (WM, rated SELL)

This is what I have posted about WAMUQ common stock on Thursday, March 11 2010 or one day before stock went down from $0.45 to $0.09 and closed at $0.21.
I will not go over it again as it was simple research based on basic accounting and no quant science, even my parrot knows what it means assets, liabilities, debt, EPS, asset sales…

It was posted here:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id…

Copy&Paste:
I am sorry to inform you but this shares will be canceled.
I don’t say the company will not be in business after 10-20 years but what I say is that this shares have no value.
How can you pay $600 million for a stock that sells only $1.5 billion of paper a year and has a $90 billion in debt.
The shares can not have any value based on how they can serve this debt, it’s too big even in they use all their cash to pay only major secured lenders, they will be in a $80 billion hole.
The money will be made in WAMUQ but equity holders will get $0.
I don’t try to be smarter than anybody but this story is as simple as black and white. Even most of their bondholders will not be paid and debt will be re-negotiated hundred times and this will dilute any equity, really nonsense to buy it for long term.
Their only value is as a company they can be in 20-30 years, but no value for the stock.

http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/fortune500/2006/snapsh… <font>  

once they had $20 billion in revenues but not anymore, most of this assets will be sold to creditors for pennies… </font>

ANOTHER INTERESTING THING TO KNOW: http://biz.yahoo.com/t/21/7820.html
TPG ADVISORS VI, INC who have bought WAMUQ stock (228,000,000 shares)  in JUNE 2008 for about $7 and more lost as of know almost all their equity or more precise now listen $1,600,000,000 BILLION DOLLARS

<font> http://seekingalpha.com/user/586413/profile </font>

WASHINGTON MUTUAL: 100% OF BUSTED BANKS COMMON EQUITY WILL BE CANCELED (WM, rated SELL)

mikehavRx.com News Bytes: $DCTH, $TRA, $POT, $SUPG, $ACCP.OB, $AMLN (DCTH, rated BUY)

HavRx Global Crop Science Index: Potash (NYSE: POT) is poised to open trading at new highs after posting strong earnings and upping its guidance. Meanwhile, Yara International (OTC: YARIY.PK) has withdrawn its bid for Terra Industries (NYSE: TRA), which will be acquired by CF Industries (NYSE: CF). In addition, Agrium (NYSE: AGU) has dropped its hostile bid for CF.

<font> Delcath Systems (NASDAQ: DCTH) is an emerging, small-cap medical device innovator that is developing a regional treatment system for cancer in the liver. Delcath’s Percutaneous Hepatic Perfusion (PHP) technology allows physicians to deliver significantly higher doses of existing chemotherapy drugs to the liver without exposing each patient’s entire body to the anti-cancer drugs, representing an elegant solution that promises to increase the effectiveness of approved anti-cancer drugs while reducing systemic side effects. </font>

<font> DCTH conducted an update conference call today and still expects pivotal study results in April. The pending FDA filing will be based on these results with Fast Track status and rolling submission to expedite the process while a filing for CE Mark (Europe) clearance as a Class III medical device is now expected by year-end. </font>

<font> Amylin Pharma (NASDAQ: AMLN), Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY), and Alkermes (NASDAQ: ALKS) have a financial stake in a pending FDA decision that is expected today for a new once-weekly formulation of diabetes drug Byetta (exenatide LAR). </font>

<font> Access Pharma (OTC: ACCP.OB) has developed a nano-polymer drug delivery system for the oral administration of large molecules that are currently administered as injections (e.g. insulin, human growth hormone or hGH, erythropoietin or EPO, fertility drugs, parathyroid hormone/PTH, RNA-based therapeutics (sRNAi), and monoclonal antibodies). On Thursday, Access announced that it received reports from its two bio-pharmaceutical collaborators for oral insulin, which independently confirmed previous results by the Company for oral bio-availability in preclinical animal models of greater than 80% as compared to subcutaneous injections of insulin. </font>

<font> Access reported several ongoing negotiations with additional companies that are interested in its Cobalamin Oral Drug Delivery Technology while simultaneously evaluating options for advancing oral insulin to proof-of-concept studies in humans as soon as possible. Based upon previous guidance, Access may initiate proof-of-concept (Phase 1 equivalent) studies for oral insulin in humans in Eastern Europe or India during 2H10 (with expected duration of 3-5 months and cost of $250-300,000). </font>

<font> Earlier this morning, Eisai Inc. (OTC: ESALY.PK) announced FDA approval for a five-day dosing regimen for anti-cancer drug Dacogen (decitabine) to treat patients with myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS). Dacogen was approved by FDA in May 2006 for a three-day regimen and developed by SuperGen (NASDAQ: SUPG) and MGI Pharma (which was since acquired by Eisai). </font>

<font> mikehavRx.com Index Updates is a premium service that provides investors with time-saving information and updates on unique global baskets of stocks that are organized and managed within the 18 HavRx Stock Indexes outlined below that are being tracked at the Investars YOU website since June 2009. Please visit </font> <font> www.mikehavRx.com </font> <font> for more details on my new publishing company, website, and premium service. </font>

<font> Disclosure: Long ACCP.OB, DCTH </font>

mikehavRx.com News Bytes: $DCTH, $TRA, $POT, $SUPG, $ACCP.OB, $AMLN (DCTH, rated BUY)

RAGING BULL ON ‘MRNA’ FOR NEXT TWO WEEKS (MRNA, rated BUY)

SINCE 2007 I HAVE BEEN THE MOST ACCURATE REGARDING ‘MRNA”S DIRECTION. NOW A SWITCH TO A POSITIVE, WHICH GIVES SHAREHOLDERS THE OPPORTUNITY TO FINALLY SEIZE PROFITS AND MOVE TO A NEW LEVEL OF INVESTING WITH MUCH HIGHER POTENTIALS WITH SPECTACULAR COMPANIES THAT WILL SHINE BRIGHTLY WITHIN THE NEXT 12 MONTHS. SEE AND READ MY COMMENTS ON CNBC BELOW……. http://www.cnbc.com/id/34951863/site/14081545/__source/yahoo|… OR READ THEM ON EARNINGS WHISPERS, TOPIX, THE STREET.COM, PREDICT WALL STREET, AND MOTELY FOOL. EITHER WAY IN MY OPINION, SPECTACULAR NEWS IS FORTHCOMING DRIVING THE STOCK PRICE TO A DOUBLE MINIMUM OR HIGHER IN THE NEXT TWO WEEKS. INVESTORS/SHAREHOLDERS HAVE A GREAT OPPORTUNITY TO MAKE PROFITS AND RUN! MARCH 12, 2010′MY OPINION’

RAGING BULL ON ‘MRNA’ FOR NEXT TWO WEEKS (MRNA, rated BUY)

JPM (JPM, rated SELL)

JPM….   

JPMorgan, Citigroup Helped Cause Lehman Collapse, Report Says

Something tells me government will impose even more regulation even as far as a bank tax for helping cause the collapse of Lehman, which harmed the economy.  Ironically, this will prove a fatal blow for the US government by stupidly making enemies of your best friends.

JPM (JPM, rated SELL)

Mar 17 – Before the Open (SPY, rated HOLD)

Today’s Before the Open

This week’s Economic Numbers and Earnings Reports

ChartBook / ETFs

by Jason at Leavitt Brothers

Mar 17 – Before the Open (SPY, rated HOLD)

Next Page »

Translate Investors Paradise

By N2H

• Recent Posts

  • Mar 18 – Before the Open (SPY, rated BUY)
  • Regulatory Catalyst Extreme Trades: $APPA, $APPY $ARIA, $CTIC, $SOMX (CTIC, rated SELL)
  • GOLD $600 : IT’S COMING IN 2010 (GLD, rated SELL)
  • Regulatory Catalyst News: $ALKS, $AMLN, $LLY, $MNKD, $SVNT (AMLN, rated BUY)
  • Chesapeak Energy – Natty or Nasty? (CHK, rated SELL)
  • WASHINGTON MUTUAL: 100% OF BUSTED BANKS COMMON EQUITY WILL BE CANCELED (WM, rated SELL)
  • mikehavRx.com News Bytes: $DCTH, $TRA, $POT, $SUPG, $ACCP.OB, $AMLN (DCTH, rated BUY)
  • RAGING BULL ON ‘MRNA’ FOR NEXT TWO WEEKS (MRNA, rated BUY)
  • JPM (JPM, rated SELL)
  • 18 Mar 2010 11:50:00 – Top 5 Stocks up on Unusual Volume

Copyright © 2008 Investors Paradise LIVE! Social Community · Log in

Disclaimer · Privacy Policy
Development by Nictech Designs Inc