CEO (CNOOC) (CEO, rated SELL)

August 29, 2008

An upswing to retest $158 made yesterday (Aug. 27, 2008) is probable. But after that a down swing to $146 is expected. Therefore, this is a bearish quick trade of about $8 to $12 in expected profit, depending on where you short it.

It is likely that CEO will dip below $146 to about $145 or somewhat lower. However, I’ll be conservative and simply be satisfied with the bulk of the short-term swing, and leave a little on the table.

To be fair, I also consulted the forecast for CEO provided by ForecastS.com, but the extra interpretation and the target price are based on my own review of the price chart for CEO. Note that there was a price gap on 8-27-2008 and I expect that to be filled.

Note this is very short-term trading and I expect the target to be met within a week or less, even though I picked two-week time frame (the shortest selection available).

CEO (CNOOC) (CEO, rated SELL)

Written by admin · Filed Under Stock Buzz | Leave a Comment

Higher on earnings (SEED, rated BUY)

August 29, 2008

BEIJING, Aug 27, 2008 (BUSINESS WIRE) — Origin Agritech Limited ( SEED , Trade ) ("Origin" or the "Company"), a technology-focused supplier of crop seeds in China, today announced unaudited financial results for the third quarter ended June 30, 2008. Origin prepares its financial statements in accordance with generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP) of the United States.

Financial Results Overview

During the third quarter of fiscal 2008, the Company generated revenues of RMB 490.71 million (US$71.54 million), an increase of 7.73% from revenue of RMB 455.49 million (US$59.84 million) for the three months ended June 30, 2007. This was mainly due to a 6.2% increase in the average sales price of our products across all seed types with volumes also increasing 2.2%.

Corn revenues increased 7.75% year-over-year to RMB 366.04 million (US$53.37 million) from RMB 339.72 million (US$44.63 million). This was mainly due to a 10.25% increase in the average sales price of our products across corn seed types.

Gross margins for the third quarter improved to 29.36%, as compared to 23.91% achieved during the third quarter of 2007 caused by an increase in the average selling price.

Total operating expenses for the three months ended June 30, 2008 were RMB 45.71 million (US$6.66 million), a decrease of 7.79% from RMB 49.58 million (US$6.51million) in the same period of the prior year. The decrease was mainly due to the effective internal controls over daily operating costs and expenses.

— Selling and marketing expenses were RMB 16.82 million (US$2.45 million) for the third quarter of 2008, representing a decrease of 7.95% from RMB 18.27 million (US$2.40 million) for the same period of the last year, which was mainly due to the decrease in advertising expenses. Our marketing focus this year consisted mainly of setting up more effective and cost efficient field demonstration lots, and eliminating our spending on advertising and other media expenditures.

— General and administrative expenses of RMB 19.06 million (US$2.78 million) for the third quarter ended June 30, 2008, decreased 4.29% from RMB 19.92 million (US$2.62 million) for the three months ended June 30, 2007 due to an effective control over daily operating costs and expenses, which should continue to take further effect over the next 3 quarters.

— Research and development expenses during the quarter were RMB 9.83 million (US$ 1.43 million), as compared with RMB 11.39 million (US$ 1.50 million) for the three months ended June 30, 2007. R&D expenditures decreased slightly this quarter, but it has increased for the nine-month period as a result of the increased build out of our in-house biotechnology center at our Beijing headquarters. We expect to continue building our capabilities in an efficient, cost effective manner.

Income from operations for the third quarter of 2008 amounted to RMB 98.38 million (US$ 14.34 million) compared with an operating income of RMB 59.35 million (US$7.80 million) in the same period in 2007 reflecting a 65.77% increase year-over-year.

Interest expenses for the third quarter of 2008 were RMB10.31 million (US$1.50 million), representing an increase of 145.29 % from RMB 4.20 million (US$0.55 million) for the three months ended June 30, 2007, which was primarily attributable to the inclusion of the interest expenses on the convertible debt of RMB 5.51 million (US$0.80 million) in the third quarter of 2008.

Net income for the third quarter of 2008 rose by 62.98% to RMB 60.12 million (US$ 8.77 million), as compared to net income of RMB 36.89 million (US$4.85 million) in the same period a year ago. Earnings per share on a fully diluted basis were RMB 2.62 (US$0.38), as compared to RMB 1.50 (US$0.20) per diluted share in the same period one year ago, reflecting a 74.67% year-over-year increase.

Higher on earnings (SEED, rated BUY)

Written by admin · Filed Under Stock Buzz | Leave a Comment

FocusShares ISE Homebuilders Index Fund (SAW) is a BUY

August 29, 2008

Home builders are on their way up. Most are trading well below their NCAV and this fund in particular is a good way to gain exposure with out the risk of any single company going out of business. While their assets may not be as high as their balance sheets indicate, they still have net value and many have few liabilities. Housing market will bottom June-July 09 and if the market is 6 months ahead, now is a good time to buy. Home builders bottomed out in July and given how crappy the market is, I’ll bet it takes more then a year to dig out. In a year, will grow 20-40%.

FocusShares ISE Homebuilders Index Fund (SAW) is a BUY

Written by admin · Filed Under Stock Buzz | Leave a Comment

TIVO is TheSUBWAY’s Pick of the Day (TIVO, rated BUY)

August 29, 2008

Today we are buying TIVO, which just released earnings yesterday:

TheSUBWAY - Blog:
http://stock-promoter.thesubway.com/thesubway-clients/tivo-is…

TiVo Inc. (Nasdaq: TIVO), the creator of and a leader in television services for digital video recorders (DVRs), today reported financial results for the second quarter ended July 31, 2008.

"This was another solid financial quarter for TiVo as we continued to improve our financial profile by posting substantially better than guided Adjusted EBITDA of $10.6 million and net income of $2.9 million," said Tom Rogers, President and CEO of TiVo. "During the quarter, we made significant progress in several key areas of our business: in terms of our mass distribution strategy, Comcast has reaffirmed its long term support for our partnership as evidenced by its roll-out in Connecticut; our international footprint continues to grow with Seven’s successful introduction of TiVo to the Australian market; and on the standalone side of the business, with the recent addition of YouTube content delivered right to the TV set, our vision of creating the ultimate television dream machine is coming to fruition as subscribers now have access to the broadest array of content, options, and features in the world, delivering consumers what they want, when they want it."

The STOCHASTICS are in good position for an entry point:

Our DAILY chart is looking good:

The 15 MINUTE is just starting upward momentum:

Our WEEKLY chart is showing an upward trend:

Our PHILS X1 is showing support at $7.90 with resistance at $8.00. So TIVO is currently above its resistance point and we are entering a stop just below $7.90:

Our Phils X2 is also indicating institutional buying coming into TIVO. We will watch the volume closely and will anticipate continued increased volume if the institutional buying continues. So far this morning the volume is looking relatively good considering the vacation weekend and notorius light volume:

TIVO is TheSUBWAY’s Pick of the Day (TIVO, rated BUY)

Written by admin · Filed Under Stock Buzz | Leave a Comment

Why there is now bottom in sight (LEH, rated SELL)

August 28, 2008

When considering if financial stocks have hit bottom first consider this research piece by Bridgewater , the worlds 2nd largest hedge fund. It doesn’t bode well for LEH, the financial industry, the US Dollar, or the US economy in general. This is no time to be taking speculative positions in securities that neither you or I have the ability to analyze completely enough to make a sophisticated investment decision. In markets like these you are far better off protecting your capital than trying to catch falling knives.

~~~~~~~~~~~

U.S. study estimated losses of financial institutions at $1.6 trillion dollars

by Marco Zanchi

Those that assume the misery is coming to an end are wrong. When it comes to writedowns, losses and raising fresh capital, the crisis has only just begun for banks. Losses are expected t reach $1.6 trillion, only a fraction of which have been uncovered. This is the conclusion of a confidential study made available to Sonntagszeitung.

But that is not everything. While banks give their word of honor that no further capital is needed, the paper by Bridgewater Associates says: "We have big doubts that financial institutions will be able to obtain enough new capital in order to cover the losses. This will worsen the credit crunch. "

"If everything they say is true," says Charles Wyplosz, a professor at the University of Geneva, " a number of financial institutions will face bankruptcy." The research paper is ‘hot ‘in professional circles not only because of its content, but also because of the originator; Bridgewater Associates is the second-largest hedge fund in the world. The people behind it are brilliant, first among them Ray Dalio, who founded the company more than thirty years ago.

$26.6 trillion of debt is considered risky

The company is one of the big names in the industry. Their macro-analyses especially have weight in central banks - some central banks are customers of Bridgewater. When asked, the Swiss National Bank replied that they do not comment on such studies on principle.

What is at risk for the banks? In order to identify the dimensions of the crisis for financial institutions, Bridgewater has calculated the expected losses on a wide range of risky credit-based U.S. assets such as mortgages, credit- or credit card-receivables. Then, one would need to know basically who had how much on the books. The total value of these risky comes to $26.6 trillion dollars. The losses on these assets would then sum to $1.6 trillion dollars, if all of the assets were valued at market prices and not marked to model, writes Ray Dalio.

Traditional credit loans are not on the balance sheet at market prices, because they are not traded. The loss, when applied to the $26.6 trillion face value of assets, is an impairment of 6 percent. If market prices rise, the size of the loss is reduced; If prices fall, the losses increase.

US credit institutions are holding the largest losses.

Bridgewater has calculated that, so far, financial institutions have only acknowledged losses of $400 billion. Non-US banks - especially UBS - have provided the lion’s share of that at $238 billion. Therefore, the greatest expected future losses should be at U.S. credit institutions. This includes names such as Citigroup, Bank of America and JP Morgan Chase and many smaller institutions unknown here in Switzerland.

Why? That’s because lending is their core business, and they hold the majority of the assets. But, it is also because a large part of the losses are in the form of traditional bank loans, and, unlike securitized mortgages, these are not traded. So, their value has not been corrected on the balance sheet. "If we assess [the validity of] current market prices, we have a long way to go, because these institutions have only acknowledged one-sixth of their expected losses resulting from the credit crisis," writes Bridgewater. Five-sixths comes to nearly $500 billion.

The big question is: Can the banks plug these holes from the losses with new equity capital? Alone for the U.S. banks named above, we are talking about $400 billion, estimates Bridgewater. The banking industry does not have enough healthy institutions to absorb the sick. Meanwhile bank shares are in freefall. And the Middle Eastern Sovereign Wealth Funds have lost the appetite.

The international interdependence makes everything much more complicated

If the banks, as Dalio fears, do not succeed in mobilizing enough fresh capital, they would be forced to sell assets - and in a cyclical downturn at that. That could trigger a classic death spiral downwards, as sales of assets would pressure their share prices, which in turn weakens the banks’ balance sheets and further sales would be necessary. "Once again we have a mountain of distressed assets to sell, which is enormous in comparison with any conceivable demand [for those assets]," says Dalio.

Exacerbating the situation is the fact that, in the Spring, "smart" investors bought large quantities of securitized loans, as their prices fell - in the hope of snapping up a bargain. If the prices continue to drop, these investors will come under severe pressure, especially many who are using borrowed funds.

What’s gotten Dalio so pessimistic? The United States is stuck in a large debt-relief process, a "classic deleveraging," as Japan was in the nineties or as many countries during the world economic crisis in the 30s or developing countries during their debt crises. Only this time everything is much more complex, primarily because of the enormous international interdependence of the financial services industry. Making things worse, U.S. consumers are overly indebted and access to cheap money is blocked now.

Moreover, the United States is dependent on foreign capital in order to finance their lifestyle. "The outlook for the dollar is bleak. Very, very bleak, " a former central banker said to Sonntagszeitung.

The real downturn in the U.S. is only beginning

So far, the financial problems resulting from the financial crisis have been large , but the economic ones have been small, because economic problems follow financial ones with a time delay. After liquidity injections by the U.S. central bank induced a short uptick from March to June, the economy and financial system of the USA should now be on the threshold of a real slowdown, he says. The poor credit environment crisis in the real economy resulting from the financial crisis will now have a negative reciprocal effect on the financial sector.

Phase one of the credit crisis was marked by the collapse of the real estate market in the U.S. and the crash in the market for subprime mortgages. Phase two - a kind of calm before the storm - began with the rescue of the U.S. investment bank Bear Stearns in mid-March. This phase came to an end in June, when optimism in the financial markets waned again. Now phase three is set to start. "Bridgewater is on the pessimistic side, no question," says George Magnus, Senior Economic Adviser at UBS in London, "but Bridgewater is absolutely right."

Why there is now bottom in sight (LEH, rated SELL)

Written by admin · Filed Under Stock Buzz | Leave a Comment

CVC - Smart money is buying (CVC, rated BUY)

August 28, 2008

I think Cablevision is a smart buy. After years of being run like their private little piggy bank the Dolans are finally going to be held accountable by one very smart and shrewd investor, Phil Falcone. Falcone has been one of the star hedge fund performers for the last several years. Phil Falcone is the senior portfolio manager and strategist at Harbinger Capital. The long and the short of it is Falcone is a moneymaker and if you want to invest with smart money you can’t do any better than Phil.

Please read: www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/news/Stock%20News/1843696/
Aug 23, 2008 (Newsday - McClatchy-Tribune News Service via COMTEX) — NYT | Quote | Chart | News | PowerRating — Aug. 23–A hedge fund that recently became the fourth-largest outside investor in Cablevision Systems Corp. said Friday it wants to meet with the company.

Harbinger Capital Partners Funds revealed in regulatory filings that it increased its stake of company from 4.9 percent to 8.1 percent, acquiring almost 19 million shares of the Bethpage company. Harbinger is known for pushing for change in companies in which it invests, such as The New York Times Co.

"We are looking at all options and hope to meet with the company in the very near future to discuss our thoughts," said Charles V. Zehren, a spokesman for Harbinger.

He declined to comment about the issues Harbinger wants to discuss with Cablevision, which owns Newsday. But in a filing, Harbinger said it purchased the shares "in the belief that the issuer’s shares are undervalued."

Harbinger bought into Cablevision after the stock had run up to $29, so it must think shares are worth still more, said Collins Stewart analyst Tom Eagan.

In a statement, Cablevision said: "We welcome all investors and are focused on enhancing value for all shareholders."

Last Friday, Cablevision said it would pay its first-ever regular dividend, in a move seen as conciliatory toward shareholders. It also met with major shareholders to discuss strategies to boost the stock price.

Even though the Dolan family controls 74 percent of voting rights, Eagan thinks Harbinger can still shake things up. He noted that the Dolans’ bid to take the company private last fall was scuttled by investors who thought the $36.26-per-share price was too low.

Major shareholder "[Mario] Gabelli was instrumental in persuading folks it was an undervalued private bid," Eagan said. Harbinger "can sway the opinion of other major investors."

This story was supplemented with an Associated Press report.

To see more of Newsday, or to subscribe to the newspaper, go to http://www.newsday.com Copyright (c) 2008, Newsday, Melville, N.Y. Distributed by McClatchy-Tribune Information Services. For reprints, email tmsreprints@permissionsgroup.com, call 800-374-7985 or 847-635-6550, send a fax to 847-635-6968, or write to The Permissions Group Inc., 1247 Milwaukee Ave., Suite 303, Glenview, IL 60025, USA.

For full details on Cablevision Systems Cl A (CVC) click here . Cablevision Systems Cl A (CVC) has Short Term PowerRatings of 6. Details on Cablevision Systems Cl A (CVC) Short Term PowerRatings is available at This Link .

CVC - Smart money is buying (CVC, rated BUY)

Written by admin · Filed Under Stock Buzz | Leave a Comment