Thursday Outlook: No Inflation? Who Knew?!

May 15, 2008

David Fry (ETF Digest) submits: Oh boy!
Who
knew?
There’s no inflation.
All you need do is read the headlines in the
financial media and listen to the talking heads and you’ve got the story.
The trick here of course is, and has been, to
drink the Kool Aid of government manipulated inflation data.

This month the featured statistical “look
left, run right” was the “seasonal” energy price adjustment which argues that
energy demands will be higher at this time of year and that means we need to
heavily discount the headline number.
Did you ask your gas station attendant for a discount at the pump?
If you didn’t get your adjustment just drop a
note at the Bureau of Labor Statistics and ask for one.
Good luck.

In my absence from posting,
I’ve been visiting ETF providers in the Chicago
area.
What fun!
Have I learned anything out in the western
suburbs?
Not much new frankly.

Stocks have been rising erratically over the past four
trading days as bulls still command the tape and are able to cherry-pick the
news that suits their purpose. Let’s face it, bulls have a lot of cash, trigger fingers and are
beset with performance anxiety.
It’s understandable.

Bears on the other hand have been repeatedly squeezed so
much they dare not think of shorting.

Bulls are just playing the game with each other as volume
and breadth haven’t been impressive.