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The Macro Man Recovery Program

November 19, 2008

Macro Man submits:

Markets remained edgy yesterday, with SPX futures current trading down 2% from Monday’s limp close. Last week’s 11% intraday rally seems like a long time ago in a galaxy far, far away.

At this point, however, Macro Man is refraining from embracing the downdraft with both arms. There have been too many intraday reversals to make him comfortable; while that may be a precondition for the next leg lower, the burden of proof is on the index to close lower. Sometimes looking at a simple line chart can provide insight; as the graph below demonstrates, the SPX has yet to close meaningfully below 850 despite plenty of intraday action below that level. A close anywhere near current futures prices (834) would therefore be significant.

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The Macro Man Recovery Program

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